Tropical Storm Danielle has formed out over the Atlantic. It is most likely going to swerve north and die over the Atlantic, but it could strengthen into a decent storm before it does. I’ve done no forecasting yet, but I’m going to try and take a look at it tomorrow some time.
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Well tornado season is pretty much done except for occasional action way up north. It sucks. Most years I’m ready for season to be over, but not so much this year. I’m pretty disappointed in how I performed. I continued my slump that started last year. I used to get 20 tornadoes a season on a decent year. Now I’m struggling to even get a tornado. I used to chase a lot more and work a lot harder at it than I do now. My decrease in effort coincides pretty well with my drop in results. I will get it back on track next season though. I really regretted not chasing more this year, especially since most of the best storms happened on low profile days when I wasn’t out. It was definitely a disappointing season for me. For the first time in a few years I’m really motivated to get after it next season though. I’ll make chasing a higher priority again and work harder at it.
Its about time to start watching the Atlantic for hurricane season. Long range forecasts for this hurricane season are pretty bullish. The forecast was bullish in 2006 too though and we didn’t get a damn thing. I think you can put very little weight in those seasonal forecasts so I don’t know what to expect. We’ll have to wait and see.
Hurricane forecasting is a totally different animal from tornado forecasting. It is tough to explain if you don’t know a little bit about meteorology. Hurricane chasing is very different from tornado chasing too. With hurricanes its all about being prepared. Heading to the coast for a major hurricane is basically like going on a 3-4 day camping trip in the middle of nowhere, that gets interupted halfway through with hellish weather. There are mass evacuations with a lot of highways switching over to contraflow in the days leading up to the event. That is where highways do lane reversals and have outbound traffic on both sides of the highway. You have to plan around that when figuring out how to get to the coast. Its easy enough if you plan ahead and just take smaller highways. One of the biggest challenges is supplies. There are hundreds of thousands of people being displaced by a major hurricane. Gas supplies get wiped out right away. When I chased hurricane Rita there was no place that had gas once you got south of Dallas. I went to Beaumont, Texas so I had to make it from Dallas to the coast and back north of Dallas without ever getting gas. I had a full tank and 60 gallons worth of gas cans on my roof. That is about what you need. I could ramble for a long time on all the shit you have to get ready before chasing a major hurricane, but I’ll spare you. Basically it isn’t something to be taken lightly. I am going to do everything I can to go if we get a category 3 or higher US landfalling storm this year. Its a lot of fun, but a distant second to tornado chasing IMO. There is no storm structure or lightning. Its just wind and rain. Don’t get me wrong. Its a spactacle. Sustained winds of a 150mph are nothing to be trifled with. It will tear some shit up, but it can’t compare to the beauty you get with a good tornadic supercell. Half the thrill of hurricane chasing is experiencing the chaos and destruction that go along with it. I saw thousands of people who had run out of gas camped in the ditches along the highway on my way down for hurricane Rita. It was insane. Then once you get to the area that is about to get hit it is totally deserted. There was literally nobody around. Its bizarre driving around a major town thats been abandoned. Once a city like that has been evacuated and the storm is coming in, there is no 911. You are on your own. It is a sobering feeling when the wind starts to pick up. Its not like with a tornadic storm where you can drive away from. You are locked in at that point. Regardless of what goes wrong, all you can do is hunker down and hope for the best. I loved chasing Rita, but it was pretty intense and even borderline terrifying at times. I lost a couple windows before the worst part of the storm, so there was a few minutes of WTF do I do now. It was an awesome experience and I had a great time overall.
Anyway, enough rambling. I will start to work on my hurricane forecasting in the next few days and I’ll keep my blog updated as needed with tropical outlooks.
I’d probably be just west of La Crosse right now if I was chasing. I’d hang right along that outflow boundary. That area seems to have the best chance for a good tornadic storm. I still really don’t like how badly low level winds are veering. There is a chance for some good tornadoes, but setups like this one have a higher bust potential. Its virtually impossible to forecast tornadoes on a day like this with much certainty. These kinds of shear profiles will bust more times than not for tornadoes, but some times they also produce some pretty nasty tornadoes. It seems like you get one extreme or the other. I still think overall there is pretty high bust potential with tornadoes today, but I expect at least one decent tornadic storm near the OFB.
I never did any forecasting for today until just a minute ago. I only looked at a few things, but I’m not real impressed with what I’m seeing as far as tornado potential. These kinds of setups are really tough to judge as far as tornadoes go, but more times than not they won’t pan out. The biggest problems I see is veering 850mb winds, which are causing virtually no turning in the 850-500mb layer over the western portion of the tornado risk area that SPC put. Over the eastern portion 850mb winds back slightly more, but they are weaker which takes away from the SRH. The other big problem is convective evolution. With storms firing all over the place it is likely to be a sloppy afternoon. Tornadic storms don’t usually thrive unless they are isolated. One cell after another developing over the warm sector doesn’t bode well for tornadoes. You end up getting a cluster fuck.
I think we will see a few dominant cells this afternoon in training lines/clusters that produce tornadoes, but this will not be a photogenic chaser friendly setup. I could very easily be wrong on this though. With extreme instability and respectable deep layer shear there certainly is the potential for some serious tornadoes. Veering 850mb winds can spike your SRH values too, but I still don’t think the low level shear is that great for tornadoes. I don’t like very many setups where 850 winds are veering badly and this is one of them.
I’m going to watch this unfold through the day and I’ll update if I have anything worth saying. If I was chasing I would probably set up about 50 miles south of Minneapolis and see how things evolve.
I’m not too optimistic about today. Storms are firing near Topeka now and cu field is thickening along a boundary from east central Kansas to south central Kansas. Storms should continue to develop in both of those areas through the afternoon.
It is a mediocre severe weather setup. There is definitely a nonzero chance for tornadoes, but the way things look now I’d be suprised to see anything more than a brief spinup. I haven’t looked closely at the SR winds, but very little directional change in the 850-500mb layer rarely bodes well for tornadoes. It does happen though. With mediocre thermodynamics across the northeast portion of the state and weak deep layer shear along the southern boundary, I’d be real suprised to see it work out today. I’m going to be ready and keep an eye on things in case something discrete goes up close to home, but other than that I don’t plan on chasing.
SPC didn’t seem very excited about the tornado potential for tomorrow, but I’m still going to take a look at it today since it will be close to home tomorrow. I’ll update later on that. I’ll keep posting occcasionaly as today unfolds too.
Still trying to decide if I want to mess with chasing today. I didn’t get up until after 11 and until about 10 minutes ago I had forgotten about the chase potential for today. I’m pretty out of it in the morning.
Storms continue to develop off the southwest edge of current convection along the KS/MO border. Paramaters are not very conductive for a tornado threat right now. The shear is okay, but CAPE is a little weak for this time of year where storms are currently tracking through. I have done zero forecasting so far so I better take a look at a few things. Right now I’m not optimistic. The 4km WRF seems to be a little too far south with convection, but it shows more discrete cells developing off the flank of ongoing storms later this afternoon. I’ll look a little closer at the setup, but right now I’m inclined to stay home and watch the world cup. I’m not a soccer fan, but I wouldn’t mind watching the game since this is the last one I’ll watch for four years. I’ll update through the day as I take a look at things.
SPC has a chance for severe weather near Wichita over the next couple days. I haven’t done any forecasting yet, but I’ll go over everything in the morning and update then. Not sure if I’ll chase or not. SPC doesn’t seem to think there is much of a tornado threat at least tomorrow, but it will be close to home so I may just run out to take some pictures. I’ll figure that out in the morning.
Both the ECMWF and GFS are in decent agreement with the overall synoptic scale pattern. I didn’t look at either close enough to notice any discrepencies between the two, which I’m sure there are, but both show an omega block setup for the first part of this week. Towards mid week the amplified west coast trough will break down the central US ridge to some degree, allowing strong mid and upper level winds over the northern plains the latter part of the week. That is when we’ll get our next decent chance for tornadoes.
I have spent very little time on this since there really isn’t much to look forward to. I’ll start paying closer attention as the week progresses and we get a little closer to any severe weather chances. Until then I’ll only update with brief forecasts.
In other news, my god damn air conditioner has been out since Friday. I called the front office of the apartments I live in on Saturday morning, but then never sent anybody out to look at it. So this morning I called back. The answering service took the call and I told the lady what happened. She said, “yeah if its not over 75 then they don’t get out there right away”. Obvioulsy she wasn’t real sure what part of the country we’re in so I reminded her it was 97 degrees on Saturday. The guy finally came out here, but said he needs to replace the fan motor and he can’t get one until tomorrow. Long story short I’ve been sweating my nuts off in my apartment all weekend. It sucks.
I just glanced at the GFS and if its telling the truth it could be pretty slow until the latter part of next week when the remnants of a west coast trough finally starts to move into the high plains. I haven’t looked at the ECMWF or anything more than the upper air pattern with the GFS so I’ll have to spend a little time on it and I’ll update tomorrow.
The world cup game sucked. I really thought we were going to win that game after we tied it up in the second half. Pretty big let down. Oh well, now balance can return to sports. I’ll update tomorrow.
Still not much to look forward to. We may get two chase days this weekend again for the third week in a row, but its nothing special. I won’t be chasing. After chasing the last two weekends I am desperate for an opportunity to sleep in.
We are currently transitioning to more of a zonal flow pattern over the northern plains right now. The GFS shows a couple small disturbances coming through the northern plains this weekend. I didn’t look at the details with either of these setups yet, but it looks like conditions willl probably be favorable for some severe weather both days this weekend.
With the GFS the jet stream amplifies significantly early next week as a west coast trough digs south. This trough will begin weakening as it pushes east by the second half of the week and isn’t forecast to be very strong by the time it affects the northern plains next Saturday. Still it would be sufficient for severe weather if the forecast holds.
All in all it looks like a pretty slow week coming up. I am actually glad for the break. I’m always ready for the forecasting to end for a while. It wears you out after a couple months of forecasting almost every day. I’ll work on video tonight. I already got one short clip done, so I’ll definitely get some video posted tonight.
Well I literally did a 30 second glance over of the GFS and there isn’t anything to look forward to right now. A trough will ease in on the west coast the first part of next week as we evolve into a omega block pattern. This mornings GFS has the trough flattening out and migrating over the top of the ridge. Way too far out to have any idea how much the crest of the ridge may break down, but its that time of year where you can start to gorget about good tornado setups in the central plains. You are going to have to head north for any decent action now. I’m keeping an eye on the forecast, but it is going to take something good for me to make it up to the Dakotas. I love chasing up there, but I’m really busy at work right now so I’ll only go that far for something promising. I’ll update tomorrow once I see the GFS and ECMWF.
Well I guess its time to start looking ahead again. Over the next 7 days we will transition into an omega block pattern. The GFS shows a large trough over the west coast in the 7-10 day time frame. Whether or not that trough can brake down the ridge enough to bring a good tornado threat to the plains is impossible to know right now. Odd are that some severe weather will result over the high plains if nothing else should this pattern verify, but we’ll just have to wait and see. I’ll update periodically on the weather pattern.
I have been working on getting my video edited from the last several chases. I have four different types of video editing softare on my computer now and I can’t get any of them to work right. I’m the common denominator here so its probably me and not the video editing software that won’t work right, but regardless of blame I’m struggling with getting something put together. I’ll get something up soon though and I’ll post a link here when I do.
After looking a little closer it actually looks okay in eastern Nebraska into west central Iowa. I’d probably head to the Omaha area for starters. I still didn’t look very close at it though. I want to see what SPC says and I’ll update in the morning.
I haven’t gotten much work done on the video editing yet. I was dragging ass today after chasing both days this weekend. I chased both days last weekend too, so I haven’t got to sleep in in two weeks. That doesn’t work well with me.
I only glaced at tomorrow and it doesn’t look too promising for me. I need to look closer at it, but its unlikely that I’ll chase. They may get a couple tornadoes. I didn’t look at anything in detail, but I saw enough to know that it probably isn’t worth driving all the way up there. I’d rather sit tight and hope for one more good tornado day that isn’t too far north.
I’m going to try and post a short clip from yesterdays chase. I have like an hour of footage so it will take me a couple days before I get a full video clip up.
I would be sitting just northeast of the area circled above if I was chasing today. Deep layer shear is borderline supportive of supercells. If the deep layer shear does end up being strong enough for persistent supercells, then there is an chance for a lower end tornado. I am very worried about the lack of deep layer shear and the potential for surface winds veering though. Just have to watch and see what happens.
Driving home now. Probably be home in 30 minutes or so. We got on a storm up in north central Kansas today. It transitioned into a squall line that started bowing out with awesome structure along the lead edge.
Earlier in the day storms struggled. After a while one finally getted going after two cells merged. The new updraft base that formed got organized by Kirwin Lake. It wrapped up and had a big bowl shaped lowering. I thought it was on for a few minutes. It was a textbook lead up to a tornado, and then nothing. Other than that the only tornado potential we really saw was with quick spinup like tornadoes along the edge of the outflow. I actually think we saw one weak tornado that was on the ground for about a minute. The storm kept getting kinks in the line later in the day where the updraft/shelf cloud base would thicken up and try to produce a weak tornado. It came really close several times. It was very similiar to the style of spinup tornado that we got by Buffalo Oklahoma a week ago.
In addition to a low end tornado threat, there was some awesome structure along the lead edge of the storm. There was an awesome whales mouth, which is where the shelf cloud hangs down over you and looks like you are being swallowed by a whale for those of you who don’t know what that is. This was a really good one. The clouds looked like they were boiling underneath the inside edge of the shelf cloud. I got some great video of it. It was a really cool storm. Its nice to mix it up every now and then and get totally different kind of storm than what you’re used to. There are so many different styles of structure and storms you can get when you’re out there. Every storm is unique, but this one was especially unique. If you are chasing for tornadoes you don’t get to see a whole lot of storms like we had tonight. It was an outflow beast. It could have produced a tornado, but storms that are organized like the one we were on tonight aren’t efficient tornado producers. Its a totally different kind of storm.
Anyway, enough rambling. I’ll try to post some video when I get home.
We decided to chase today at the last minute. I feel bad bailing on my dad, but he understands that kind of stuff. Its just too close to home to pass on a decent tornado day, especially when you consider the horrible cold streak I’m on.
Heading north to Salina right now. Trying to decide if we need to go west down 70 or north to the Concordia area before going west. Tough call. One way or another we need to get up to the KS/NE border area in north central Kansas. I’m going to try to stay out ahead of the storms until we have a good idea of how convection is going to evolve.
I’ll probably update in an hour or so.
Those are a couple pictures from the storm we were on today. I only took a few pictures. I was shooting video most of the time so I’ll try to get some posted tomorrow morning.
The storm got close to producing three or four times, but it just couldn’t get it done. I’m not exactly sure what was wrong. There are a ton of severe reports from those storms, but I’m really suprised there weren’t more tornado reports. Still a fun chase day even though we didn’t get a tornado. There were hardly any other chasers out which was awesome.
Just now pulling into town. Got on a tornado warned storm in north central Kansas today. It never managed to produce, but it tried like hell several times. Not a bad chase for a saturday afternoon. There was some pretty intense outflow with the storm we were on. It was kicking up huge dust clouds. One time there was an intense dust plume that kicked up right under the updraft as and RFD punched through. We actually had to pull over and look up to make sure it wasn’t a tornado forming over us. I think I got it on video so I’ll post it later. All in all not a bad day to spend a Saturday even though we didn’t get a tornado. I’ll take a look at tomorrows setup when I get home and update then.
I am pretty much baffled by SPC’s forecast today. If you get persistent storms over the northern portion of Kansas all indications are that they should thrive in that environment. Wind shear and thermodynamics are both very favorable for tornadic supercells over that area with the RUC. So far the RUC seems to be verifying, but I could be missing something. I never looked at this setup until last night. The cap is an issue, but the RUC has been showing convection bbreaking out with every run and based on satellite images it looks like there is already strong convergence north and northwest of Hays. We are almost to Hays now. Will probably meander north out of there and see what happens. I could be way off on this one, but if we do end up getting a good tornadic supercell out here SPC really botched this one IMO.
We decided to chase today and left town an hour ago. Planning on heading west on I70 to Russel area and then heading north a tad. All depends on where the best surface convergence is setting up. I’m worried about dewpoints recovering in the wake of earlier convection. That could be a problem. The RUC has been very consistent in destabilizing the environment from west to east in the wake of morning precip. That is starting to look realistic as it is already underway. Whether or not thermodynamics will be favorable for tornadic supercells by late afternoon along the NE/KS border area remains to be seen. Its a Saturday and close to home so its worth a try.
Deep layer shear may be a bit of an issue too, but you never really know how storms are going to react in an environment with good low level shear and lower end deep layer shear, so all you can do is go and hope for the best. I will be streaming video this afternoon if you want to check it out.
Tomorrow is looking like its probably going to be a chase day. I haven’t hardly looked at the GFS, but both models show a somewhat favorable area for tornadic storms along the frontal boundary. There is quite a bit of difference on the exact placement of the surface features and highest tornado threat, so there isn’t much point in going into that right now since I’ve only seen one model run. The best tornado threat will be some place over southern Nebraska or northern Kansas.
The cap could be an issue tomorrow. The NAM is more bullish with convection than the GFS which shows a stronger cap. The 4km WRF simulated radar didn’t show anything getting going during daylight hours. The models are all terrible with precip so I don’t think you can believe any of them. The only thing that I’m ever impressed with on precip with the models is the 4km WRF radar product. Its wrong a solid 50% of the time, but when its right it is amazingly accurate. I still don’t trust it on whether or not the cap will break. I have mixed feelings about the cap tomorrow. Last time I chased on the crest of a ridge (like tomorrow) it was a cap bust. I thought about it before we left on that chase and it ended up burning me. I’d hate to fall for that one again. At the same time though more times than not when the cap is a concern it ends up breaking. I typically don’t gamble with a cap. I’ll chase when its an issue and just hope for the best. That is probably what I’ll do tomorrow.
I want to spend some more time on the forecast before talking about tornado potential, but there will likely be an area along the frontal boundary where good shear, strong CAPE and sufficiently low LCL heights will all come together for a decent tornado threat. Deep layer shear and the cap are my biggest concerns. There are differences between the models on the strength and placement of the better mid level wind fields. Being in the better mid level flow will probably be important tomorrow.
I will update in the morning when I get up.
I just looked at it for the first time about 30 minutes ago, but tomorrow looks like it may hold some decent potential. There are very tight gradients with deep layer shear, LCL heights and instability so its a tricky forecast. The cap could be a serious issue, but I haven’t looked at this closely enough yet to know how big of a problem it is. The NAM has storms breaking out, but the GFS keeps a stronger cap in place. I’ll take a look at the 00Z and update with a forecast later tonight.
The storms over Minnesota are finally starting to get going. Basically the environment is still favorable for tornadoes all across Minnesota. I’m afraid the storms might run out of the instability axis though. If mesoscale analysis page is right, storms are approaching the eastern edge of the highest instability. I don’t know how current that is though.
So far the storms farther north seem to be doing better than farther south. I am kind of surprised by that. That storm along the North Dakota border looks awesome. It has a very tight clean radar signature and its already had a confirmed tornado.
Hopefully the storms farther south will start cranking here pretty soon, but so far the storms farther north seem to be in a more favorable environment for tornadic supercells. Really didn’t look at the setup over there much since I wasn’t considering chasing it.
Minnesota could be getting ready to just get raked with severe weather.
I’ll update in a bit.
So far storms have initially fired as a line of broken cells over North Dakota. They will still pose a tornado threat as they become more established downstream given the very strong SRH available. I’d stay out ahead of the line a ways to keep my options open in case a supercell in the broken line becomes a little more discrete or dominant and move in then.
Farther south near my virtual target of Brookings convergence is happening over a wide area so I’d go ahead and move downstream to Marshall. Updrafts that are trying to get started have been flying, so cheating downstream of your target is a smart idea. Storms should be a little more discrete than whats firing to the north. Good 850-500mb crossover is in place over the southwest quadrant of Minnesota. This area has the best tornado threat today. I think they’ll see a few tornadic supercells capable of producing multiple tornadoes.
Everything seems to be coming together nicely for a few tornadic supercells over potions of Minnesota and Iowa later this afternoon. Cold front is clearly showing up on satellite now as you can see in the above satellite picture. Storms should develop along the boundary later today.
Forcing is too strong over northern portions of the target area and convection will likely go linear too quickly, mitigating the tornado threat to a large degree. Farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border area convection should be a little more discrete with broken line/clusters and discrete supercells being the primary mode of convection before merging downstream later in the day. Because of that more favorable convective mode and the good overlap of CAPE and shear in this same area, that is where the greatest tornado threat will develop later today.
There are several things that bother me a bit with this setup, but no major concerns. SR winds in the mid and upper levels are better today than previously forecast by the models, which definitely helps. Hodographs will be pretty favorable for tornadic supercells all the way from Omaha up into west central Minnesota. Directional shear could be better in the lower portion of the hodograph, but as is 0-1km SRH >100 across the entire area circled above in my map is pretty good for a solid tornado threat.
With the combination of decent deep layer shear and strong to moderate instability the environment will be quite favorable for persistent supercells over the instability axis. Even though a surging cold front will be the initiating boundary, shear vectors normal to the boundary will favor at least semi discrete supercells from Omaha to north of Brookings where the greatest tornado threat is.
There are good paramaters over a large area so I expect to see a fair amount of tornado reports. The conditions are favorable for a few cyclic tornadic supercells with the potential for a strong tornado or two with any discrete storm.
I’d target the Brookings to Sioux Falls area initially and see how storms come off the boundary. Getting on a discrete or tail end storm will be critical. I plan on watching this unfold through the day so I will update regularly.
here is a map from the 4km WRF showing simulated radar for later today. I circled the area with the greatest tornado threat. I am working on my forecast now and will post it shortly.
Still didn’t spend much time on the forecast, but I saw enough to think that you’ll probably see a few tornadic supercells tomorrow. The area from Omaha to Sioux City would be a decent target. That has consistently been the southern extent of convection with the models, so there may be a tail end storm in that area or at least one or two storms that will be discrete enough to have undisturbed inflow. The problem down there is that the top half of the hodograph is not impressive. SR winds at 10km are very weak, which will probably favor HP supercells tomorrow in the Nebraska and Iowa area.
A little farther north over the southwest portion of Minnesota shear profiles will be a little more favorable for tornadic supercells, but there will also be a lot of forcing along the boundary. In this area any semi-discrete storm will pose a tornado risk. Hodographs are longer and look a little more typical of what you’d expect for a tornadic supercell.
Tomorrow could go either way. I think is almost a certainty that you’ll get some tornado reports, but the extent of any tornado threat is still a bit uncertain. I’d probably go with a 10% hatched over the southwest portion of Minnesota and adjoing portions of South Dakota and then I’d drop it to a regular 10% over the Nebraska Iowa border area.
I didn’t look at the North Dakota portion of the risk area since I’m limited on time right now.
I spent very little time on this forecast and I haven’t seen the 00Z GFS and a lot of other model products I typically look at when forecasting. I just shot from the hip on this one, so take it with a huge grain of salt.
If I was chasing I’d probably head to Brookings South Dakota for starters before fine tuning the forecast and moving in on the boundary by early afternoon.
I plan on watching this one unfold so I’ll post update through the day on here.
I skimmed over the NAM earlier today and at first glance tomorrow looks really good, but after closer examination there are a few concerns. One is very weak 10km winds. In fact, they are actually the opposite of storm motions by late afternoon. That is weird. I don’t remember seeing that on many setups in the past.
The cold front, dryline, whatever you want to call it is surging very rapidly. Mode of convection and extent/timing is also in question.
This is a complicated forecast and I haven’t spent nearly enough time on it so I’ve been hesitant to post a forecast, but I’ll try and get one up tonight.
