Update
All the posts before this one with maps is from me trying out different ways of showing weather maps this year. I’ll add them to the forecast so I can draw out the threat area, where storms should develop, etc. Kind of like Storm Prediction Center but a little more detailed and directed towards chasers. I will start posting forecasts again on March 1st. I will only post as the need arises since it’s pretty slow in March, but daily forecasts will probably start around April 1st. I’ll obviously just start posting more as we get into the busy part of the season.
test3
severe weather over the next week
I haven’t spent any time forecasting, but I did take a quick glance at the models for next Tuesday/Wednesday’s trough. The big problem I see is it’s positively tilted. When this happens your low level winds almost always veer and you have big problems with moisture advection (for several reasons). I won’t be chasing unless something dramatically changes. I’m sure we’ll get severe weather out of it, but I’m after tornadoes and tornadoes don’t seem like a possibility at this point.
I didn’t look at the short wave that comes through this weekend, but it looked half way decent, but short on moisture. I will take a closer look tomorrow but it doesn’t look like tornado material either. I seriously just glanced at the GFS for two minutes though so I need to spend a little time on it and post again tomorrow.
