Friday’s Forecast
I have to keep this really quick because I’m leaving work in a minute, but I have done some forecasting for Friday and think I figured out my target assuming the models don’t shift on us. I haven’t done my forecasting for Saturday so I’ll have to post about Saturday later.
I don’t have time to go into explanations on this either since I have to hurry.
There are two areas of interest. The NW corner of Kansas area highlighted by SPC and the area down south about where the Kansas border and dryline interset. I focused on both of these two places and have decided that I would rather target the southern area for a couple reason, again assuming the models hold true.
Down at the south target the cap has been an issue, but the latest runs want to break out convection and this area is much more likely to have discrete storms than the northern target. Dewpoints are going to be low, probably only making 58 or 59 which is going to be the tornado potential killer. LCL heights will be high and they will be low at the northern target, so the northern target probably will get more if any tornadoes. The southern area has stronger 850mb winds out of the south, while up north there are very weak 850 winds, but they are backed sharply. 0-6km shear is no contest. The southern area has much better wind fields with 25kts at 700mb and 40kts at 500mb. 0-3km SRH is pretty good ahead of the slight bulge along the border to. I’m going to take my chances on an isolated storm down along southern Kansas instead of playing the northern target where 90% of the chasers will probably go. I may change my mind though lol.
I will update later.
