Saturday Forecast
Well it looks like maybe I will chase tomorrow. The NAM is breaking out convection in north central Kansas and south of there along the dryline. Last night when it indicated this is was being cause by a weak disturbance in the 700mb layer that was cooling down mid level temps just enough for storms to kick off. I would go up to I70 or Concordia and go west from to about 20 miles east of the dryline. I don’t have time, but I will post more on this within an hour or two. I want to see what the storm prediction center says in their next update.
700mb drop off from 12 degrees to near 8 degrees with the temperature gradient running southeast to northwest. The cap seems breakable along an area in the Concordia to Phillipsburg area, although I haven’t seen a forecast sounding so I’m guessing on that.
For me it is a game where you get as far south as you can, but cheat north due to the stronger cap down south. 850 winds are stronger and backed more south of I70, but the cap is stronger as well.
I just now got the forecast hodograph for Concordia. LCL heights are high as expected, but forecasted temperatures for tomorrow are not far off from the convective temperature at 00Z. I am more optimistic we may break the cap between I70 and the Kansas-Nebraska border.
