Forecast for Tuesday June 9th
Well the GFS isn’t out yet. All I can pull is 18Z data on RAP from the GFS and it looks like it has the front a little farther north.
If the NAM is right tornadic supercells with strong and possibly violent tornadoes will be possible tomorrow over a relatively small area as long as convective mode unfolds in a favorable manner.
Here is the Enid Oklahoma sounding. I wanted something a little farther northeast of there where conditions should be even better for tornadoes http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=NAM&STATIONID=KWDG
Here are some of the forecasted paramaters…
1km SRH of 300, 1km SR winds 41kts, CAPE above 3000, 5km 25kts, 3km EHI at 10, and the hodograph has the curvature of a fishing hook and is plenty long.
This would be an extremely potent environment for cyclic tornadic supercells. Some of those numbers like 1km SR at 40kts make strong tornadoes a very real possibility.
LCL heights are still a little high and I am worried about convection firing along a warm front that has convection going just north of there all day. Can a storm fire south of there far enough to develop and get rooted in the boundary? I don’t know. I’m not that smart when it comes to those things. I am smart enough to know that any storm riding that boundary without interference from other storms would pose an extremely serious tornado threat.
Conditions will be strong enough for tornadoes early in the day and only improve, so I want to be ready early. Where I target depends totally on the location of the front. If I move that will be based on satellite and/or moisture convergence trends. Right now going off the 00Z NAM I would park near the Kansas Oklahoma border and monitor the situation from there. The area from Medicine Lodge and southeast from there is exceptional for tornadic storms. Like I said my biggest concern is getting a supercell to fire a little farther south then the rest of the convection and to ride that boundary. If that doesn’t happen maybe we’ll get quickly maturing storms that can put down a tornado or two before moving into weak instability.
I will probably post an update after seeing the gfs. If I don’t I’ll update in the morning. Here is a map of the most likely area for violent tornadoes going off the NAM.
on June 9th, 2009 at 12:30 am
Hey Micky,
My name is Brian Press from So. Cal. Just wanted to thank you for putting up all these post on your blog. I read it religiously. So thank you. My brother and I are in Blackwell, OK right now in prep for tomorrow.
Just wanted to say thanks for making my storm chasing experience a better one and I love your stories. That’s soooo crazy about that hail you got yesterday. Shez!!!
Anyway, maybe I’ll see ya out there.. We are driving a little Prious.
Thanks again,
Bp.
on June 9th, 2009 at 12:40 am
Yeah no problem. I’m on spotter network so you can keep an eye on me. Just keep and eye on the frontal boundary tomorrow. That is going to be key. I just had to adjust my map northward to account for the GFS having the front farther north and SPC was leaning that way to. I basically split the difference and think the Wichita to Hutchinson is a good corridor for tornadoes. I want to be on the south edge of the precipitation once storms start firing. It will unfold pretty fast tomorrow, but I’ll make some posts on my blog while we are on the road.