Update
SPC just came out with their update. They placed the greatest threat north of where I put it along the border. I don’t know what to think. Both models are showing convection tail ending southe of the Wichita to Hutchinson corridor so that is where you are really going to have to watch the tornado threat in my opinion.
Like I mentioned earlier, it is all going to come down to where the front is. I want to stay downstream of where I expect storms to fire and get on the tail end storms. The storms that are out ahead and further south of the clusters are what I want. You always want a storm with undisturbed inflow. That’s not always how it works, but it works more times than not.
We will have to see where the front is tomorrow and when accurate precipitation models start showing the southern edge of precip, I would draw a ling along that and straight north 40 miles and bet you there is a strong tornado in that box.
on June 9th, 2009 at 1:13 am
You mean I should maybe charge my camera batteries finally!?!?!?
on June 9th, 2009 at 7:04 am
Looks like you are pretty spot on. I see the SPC just updated their outlook and pushed it to south central and southeastern Kansas (they must have seen your forecast!).