Forecast for Tomorrow
Well I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few tornadoes come out of tomorrow’s setup given the high instability. I am not going to get to in depth with why I picked the target that I did, but here is the link to the forecast sounding for my target of Winfield if you want to look at it http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=NAM&STATIONID=KWLD
I’ve never been a big fan of fronts as initiating boundaries. Always been a dryline man myself, but I’ll take what I can get at this point. The NAM, which I am leaning on in this forecast, has convection breaking out in two primary areas. One is in western Kansas north of the Dodge city area. The other one is down by the Winfield area.
I like the Wiinfield target because it is close to home first and foremost lol. Nah, just kidding on that. I will drive wherever I have to to get a tornado.
The real reason I like Winfield and the surrounding area is because the hodograph, which I linked above, has a sharp half circle curve to it and then displays plenty of length. CAPE >4000j/kg and deep layer shear AOA 50kts with creat a favorable environment for supercells.
I don’t really see any well defined front or wind shift to initiate convection in this area, but the NAM does fire off a lot of convection and it should happen along some sort of baroclinic boundary (front or OFB).
The main reason I like the Winfield target is because the windshear is better at all levels. Helicity is supportive of tornadic activity in both the 0-1km and 0-3km range. 1km SR winds are good for steady state storms with 30kts. 5km SR winds are around 25kts I think, which is very good and LCL heights are manageable although far from ideal.
It looks like this may be one of the last chaes we get for a while so I figure I might as well go out. I hate putting up the equipment though and I just took it down. I also have more work that I can every get done. If you have sent me an email and/or I’m supposed to get back to you I will. I have a million different things going on right now. My real job is keeping me buy and stressed as usual and then on top of that I am making a huge leap with my storm chasing company and am really hoping it will pay off. I’ve already dumped a ton of money into it and I am cashing in more saving and taking out a line of crdit to get it done. It is going to be a solid business come next year though.
I have to thank Wilson Electronics who we picked up as our sponsor several weaks ago.If you see the wilson logo on the side of my car that it why. If you know me very well you know I place a great deal of importance on integrity. I would NEVER go push a product I didn’t believe in, but Wilson is top of the line in their field. I’ve been using them since I was chasing with a weather radio in my soft top jeep. They are the best by far and have a great technical support team. I will be talking more about this and show you what equipment we ran this year and how much Wilson improved our equipment setup. I don’t know how they do it, but it’s alsome gear.
We also have one other major corporate sponsor in the works, but we’ll discuss that later. We are still trying to figure out who and how the Loaded Gun Chase Tours portion of the company is going to work. There are three other guys involved that all play important roles. We will have a meeting in the next week or two and then that should clear some things up.
I will tell you this, if you have considered coming chasing with us sign up now because I swear to you prices will be going up shortly. Next years setup is going to be top of the line and I have no doubt we’re going to book up by the end of januaryy. I am extremely excited about all this, but it is more work than you could ever imagine.
I will post another foresast later tonight.
