Today’s Forecast
I am late so I am keeping this brief. I still like the southern portion of the threat area. Using primarily the NAM and current conditions I am going to cheat downstream of where I expect storms to fire. It is fun watching towers go up, but I’d rather play it safe and leave myself more time to manuver north and south if convection unfolds in an unexpected manner.
I think the sweet spot this afternoon is the southern half of the moderate where backing surface and 850mb winds (don’t see that very often) will combine with strong CAPE and decent deep layer shear for a very respectable tornado threat.
Like I said, I prefer the southern half of the target. I did little forecasting btw lol. This would mean towns like Wichita, McPherson, Kingman aand Great Bend would be under the gun. My favorite area is the Pratt to Hutchinson to Wichita area.
I will update through the day on here. I am leaving to pack and head out of town to some place in my threat area. Still not sure.
