Forecast Update

I just got done glancing over the 00Z NAM and it has trended back more towards yesterdays setup. That’s a good sign because I wasn’t a fan of the last couple runs and trends they showed. One difference stillĀ is there isn’t quite as well defined of a warm front/wind shift as we had with yesterday’s NAM solutions, but the 00Z did trend away from that elongated surface trough pattern it was moving towards today and that’s a good thing IMO. I din’t look much at the tornado potential since the NAM is still jumping around a good amount with the details, but I will tomorrow after things hopefully settle in with the models. It is looking like a pretty solid supercell setup, but fairly high LCL heights and a few uncertainties with low level shear and convective evolution are keeping my optimism for any decent tornado threat in check. The paramaters are decent for a lower end tornado threat across the area I hatched in black on the map, especially up towards the I70 area, but there are still some question marks with this one that I’ll get into tomorrow. I think it is definitely worth chasing though, partially because it’s close to home and in the KWCH viewing area, but also because I wouldn’t be surprised to get a tornadic storm out of the deal. I wouldn’t put much stock in this with the NAM jumping around so much, but as of now I’d target between Wichita and Hutchinson for a starting point.

Anyway, I need to get to bed so I’ll check models in the morning and get some more information up as soon as the NAM settles down and gives us some consistency with the details.

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