Forecast Update

The NAM has taken a bit of a turn with this mornings runs and shifted the surface pattern to the northeast. The surface features are a little different too with more of an elongated surface trough rather than a more traditional surface low and warm front. Not a fan of the changes. The area with backing low level winds and the best tornado potential is along I70 near Topeka with the latest run. I want to see the 00Z before revising my forecast and updating the threat map. The tornado threat isn’t at all impressive, but it’s there. I’m getting a little concerned about the precip output from the NAM and convective evolution though. It’s been real skimpy with convection so far. The 18Z has storms firing near I70 along the trough right at 00Z. I don’t trust the models much with precip, but it would be nice to see it breaking out storms earlier.

Anyway, I’ll look over the 00Z and get ┬ámap posted later tonight.

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