Storms already developing near an OFB from morning convection over southeast Kansas and Northeast Oklahoma will probably have the best tornado potential this afternoon. That along with the southward shift in the surface pattern was a big change in the forecast. I’m still sitting tight in Wichita trying to figure out how convection is going to evolve. The HRRR has done a pretty piss poor job handling it up to this point so zero help there. Current satellite leads me to think that additional storms could develop within the next hour or two just north of current storms and then later this afternoon they may be able to fire farther west near the moisture wrap around. The HRRR isn’t showing that happening, but like I said it’s had a poor handle on convection up to this point.

I glanced at a stream from the severe warned storm in NE Oklahoma and it had pretty good structure. Conditions aren’t that good for tornadoes yet though so I’m wondering if convection out there will get clustered and packed in before conditions improve later this afternoon. So far those storms have done a good job suppressing additional development in the immediate vicinity, keeping them pretty isolated.

Anyway, I’m still trying to figure out what I’m going to do, but I’ll be sitting tight for the moment and will likely jump east or try to pick up on a storm firing along the moisture wrap around area if it looks like storms will fire there (close to Wichita).

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