Extended Forecast

Well the 2015 storm chasing season is now upon us, but unfortunately there isn’t anything to chase quite yet. I glanced over the GFS this morning and the next 10 days is characterized by a split flow jet stream with weak disturbances coming out of the desert SW split off from the main polar front jet. In addition to the unfavorable jet stream pattern the gulf of Mexico is forecast to take a beating early next week (around 8 days from now) as northerly low level winds shove any quality moisture into the southern gulf. Soooo, looks like there is no hope of chasing until late March at the earliest. The GFS goes out to the 18th and at that time there is an east coast trough, so it would likely be another 7 days or so at least before there would be any hope for a west coast trough and favorable upper air pattern to come in behind that. That’s assuming the upper air pattern cooperates and we even get west coast toughing after the east coast long wave moves on. All that being said my best guess for the soonest tornado season could kick off in the plains will be the last week of March.

I’m still working on getting my chase equipment ready to go. I cleaned my car this weekend and having been prepping all the equipment that needs to go in there. I’m going to start running wiring this afternoon under the seats and floor mats so it’s all out of the way and get my power inverters and GPS pucks installed. I have to have my streaming video equipment setup and running by the end of this week so I can go work with Dan Rivers at KWCH to get an HDMI switch tied in with my go pros and regular streaming video camera. That will allow me to switch my streaming video source back and forth between my dash mount forward facing camera, my interior back facing go pro, and my exterior rear facing go pro that’s mounted on the roof of my car (so you get a good shot of the tornado as I drive away from it). Having three camera sources will allow me to always have a good shot for KWCH, but it will also be a pain in the ass as it’s one more thing you have to manage when you’re on a tornado.

Anyway, I’m going to be keeping an eye on the models and I’ll update periodically with forecast posts. I’ve also tried tying my twitter and Facebook accounts to my blog so any post on my blog will get shared across my social media sites. We’ll see how that goes. I kind of wanted to test it out today, hence this post. Check back for updates later this week. I should get another forecast post up by Wednesday.

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