Sorry for the lack of posts regarding the potential for severe weather this coming week. I haven’t said much because despite a lot of talk on social media from some chasers hyping the potential, I haven’t been buying it. The NAM was seriously overdoing moisture return up until recently for Monday’s setup across southern and central Kansas. I think that got some chasers jumping the gun on Monday’s potential, but a quick look at the GFS and climatology probably should have told you to pump the brakes. The NAM has finally gotten it’s shit together and is now showing lower 50 dewpoints across southern Kansas tomorrow where it was showing upper 50’s a couple days ago. That makes a big difference. SPC did put up a marginal risk (or whatever we’re calling it with their new outlook criteria, believe it would have previously been a See Text outlook), but that is primarily for the chance of elevated convection near dark that could produce a little hail. Not the kind of thing Mikey goes for. If you check NAM soundings near the convection in KS at 00Z you’ll see LFC heights around 717mb and little to no buoyancy below that. That’s not the kind of sounding you’ll see for strong surface based storms that can pose a meaningful tornado threat. Although I may wander out for a bit tomorrow that will be to test the equipment. KWCH sent an email out yesterday wanting the streaming video tested before any serious storms so I’m getting everything set up in the car today so I can test it out tomorrow. I’ll keep an eye on things, but other than the potential for a high based supercell along the dryline farther south or elevated hailers in Kansas near/after dark I’m not expecting much.
The severe weather potential increases on Tuesday as better quality moisture advects into the plains. SE Kansas and SW Missouri should see dewpoints in the low 60’s as the dryline mixes east across Kansas Tuesday afternoon. Directional shear will not be as good as it is on Monday, but speed shear increases markedly. The short wave will be taking on a pretty hard negative tilt by Tuesday afternoon. With hard negative tilts I always cheat south where there is still a decent amount of directional shear. I don’t want to ramble too much about hard negative tilt setups, but as troughs take a hard negative tilt and the cold front begins overtaking the dryline as the surface trough slingshots easts the initiating boundary starts to take on a more northeast to southwest orientation. That makes the boundary more parallel to storm motions which is bad for more reasons than just it’s direct impact on convective evolution (tends to promote clustered storms or linear convection). That direct problem doesn’t seem to be a huge issue on Tuesday, but the more indirect problems of better directional shear (core of 850mb jet) and better paramaters being farther out over the warm sector does appear to be a bit of a problem Tuesday. Take that with a grain of salt because I didn’t take a hard look at this setup, but those are all common problems that evolve as a trough matures and takes on a negative tilt. Anyhow, there does appear to be a window later Tuesday afternoon, particularly in SW Missouri, where I could see a lower end tornado occurring. Storm motions will be fairly fast (another impact of hard negative tilts when you lose the directional component to your shear profiles) and tracking through less than ideal chase country in SW Missouri. Not sure I want to bite on this one mainly because of that. I’m going to take a closer look this afternoon and tomorrow though so I’ll get back to you on that one. Despite me saying hard negative tilt several times above, it’s more of a moderate negative tilt by late Tuesday afternoon according to the NAM and there is still a decent bit of directional shear in SW Missouri, so that does make me thin there is a decent shot for a tornado so I may just get sucked into this one. That is especially the case after looking at the GFS and seeing that there won’t be a god damn thing for at least the next 10 days after this. The gulf is going to get hammered by a high amplitude east coast trough and shit all over our early April chase potential. All indications are we will have a very slow start to tornado season. I didn’t confirm it, but I saw from another chaser on Facebook there were 0 tornado reports in March, which is exceptionally rare. The law of averages tends to prevail with Mother Nature in my experience though so I’m not worried. We could get absolutely shit hammered with a wave train pattern and tornado outbreaks the second half of April and everyone will quickly forget the tornado drought we had weeks earlier. Time will tell.
Anyway, check back for updates. I’ll probably make a couple quick posts to update on the potential for severe weather over the next few days between now and Tuesday. On a side note, the much anticipated (by WSU fans) showdown between KU and WSU is going to happen this afternoon. I’m about tired of the shit talking from WSU fans on KU being scared to play them. That’s absurd. WSU has had a couple good seasons, but that is a world apart from the dynasty that KU has in basketball and the notion that a storied program like KU is scared to play anybody is ridiculous. They don’t play WSU because they won’t do a 2 for 1 deal (home/away) and it’s a lose lose deal for KU to schedule them. KU has had the strongest SOS in the country the last two years so WSU fans need to get off this high (self centered) horse they are currently riding. The lesson in humility that KU is going to give them today is long past due lol. So if you are a WSU fan, prepare to learn the meaning of the word respect at 4:15 today lol.