Update

Ehh, tough call on chasing tomorrow and the target area is a bit more uncertain. I’m tired and not that interested in this setup, so I’m not really going to get into the forecast tonight. I will try to hit on some of the forecast details in the morning when I make the call on whether or not to chase and where if I do.

Before it was pretty clean cut that the dryline/cold front intersection in SW or west central Oklahoma was the best target. Now we have a weirder surface pattern with the surface low over wester OK/E Texas elongating through the afternoon shifting the more backed low level winds (and better low level shear for tornadoes) farther east into NE Oklahoma and the adjacent corners of Missouri and Arkansas. Unfortunately it also looks like that portion of the target area may have more of a crashing cold front and convection that goes linear very quickly. The area that looks more likely to have semi discrete convection or at least more of a tail end with unimpeded inflow would be in central and possibly SW Oklahoma. So basically you have the northeastern portion of the target with better direction/low level shear and unfavorable convective evolution and the SW portion of the threat area that has a better chance at semi-discrete convection but veering low level winds (poor directional shear). Ugh, I’m looking forward to a solid tornado setup where you’re not guessing at whether or not you should chase based on the chances you may miss a weak tornado on one random storm. Because of the set of problems we’re dealing with tomorrow on convective evolution I’m really interested in the HRRR runs tomorrow morning. That will be a big part of deterring if and where I chase. I’ll update again in the morning.

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