4/14 Extended Forecast

Just glanced over the GFS, GEFS, NAM and ECMWF. There is a lot of spread model to model. The GFS run to run consistency is horrible too (didn’t look at multiple runs on the other models). I usually think the GFS does a decent job with the synoptic scale details, but it doesn’t seem to have a real good handle on things right now. The good news is that where yesterday’s runs with the GFS showed a predominant east coast trough pattern for quite a while, the GFS and ECMWF both hint at an active southern stream and a trend towards west coast troughs. This morning’s GFS is even showing some potential setups for the southern plains later next week. It’s hard to take any of it very seriously right now so I’m not going to elaborate much on the details. Anything would be better than the continuous east coast trough pattern the GFS was showing yesterday so as far as I’m concerned it’s a good thing the models are a mess right now. Something to keep an eye on though since there is some degree of hope we may get another chase opportunity before too long.

I didn’t look at tomorrow or Thursday’s setup much yet. I’ll either take a look at them later tonight or in the morning and comment on it then if it looks like there is an outside chance for a tornado some place in the plains.

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