Got to keep this short because I’m actually playing softball tonight and am in between games doing this in my car. I only briefly glanced at the forecast so take this with a grain of salt. I am not going to chase tomorrow, but if I was I’d go for the southern half of the SPC enhanced risk area for a few reasons. One is that with the closed low you get midlevel winds backing pretty badly, especially as you get farther north. This leads to S shaped hodographs and doesn’t seem to usually bode well for tornado potential. Additionally dewpoints should be a little higher farther south. The NAM breaks convection out all along the dryline before 00Z, so I’d try to focus on watching visible satellite as cu forms and see if you can anticipate where there may be a bit of a break in storms coming off the dryline over this area and get one that is going to have a little separation too it’s south. One interesting thing is that the NAM doesn’t decouple the boundary layer very quickly. I haven’t looked at other models so don’t put too much stock in this, but at 03Z the NAM forecast soundings still don’t show the boundary layer decoupling. Low level shear ramps up after 00Z with the nocturnal LLJ and hodographs getting pretty decent in the lower levels, so my best guess is that the southern half of the target area in the 6-10pm time frame is the best shot for a tornado threat. I may revise that in the morning once I see some more model data. I’ll try to post an update in the morning.

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