Just a quick forecast post on today. It’s not a good setup by any stretch of the imagination, but we may be able to eek out a weak tornado or two. Despite SPC highlighting the northwest Kansas area for the highest tornado probs, I kind of like the area a little farther south in Oklahoma best. I only glanced at things though so don’t put much stock in it. I will be targeting neither area lol. I’m going with the southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma area today. Largely because it’s closest to home and I just don’t think the tornado potential varies much along the length of the dryline. I think convective evolution and which storms remain more discrete is going to drive which storm can eek out a weak tornado and hence where the best tornado threat is this afternoon. Storms are currently trying to fire along the OFB. Those are not the dryline storms I’m after. The airmass ahead of these storms has been a bit more worked over than the air behind it ahead of the dryline, hence the deeper cumulus field ahead of the dryline on visible satellite. One thing to keep an eye on though is that the surface winds backing along and east of the OFB may help create a window where any discrete dryline storm may be able to eek out a tornado as it crosses the OFB later today. That’s assuming the backing winds hold and things look as they do now later today. I’m not sure that will help produce a tornado today, it’s just something I’d be aware of and make sure I’m in close to the updraft on any discrete dryline storm as it approaches any feature like that OFB in case it does help spike low level shear and create a shot in the arm for your storm when it crosses it.
Anyway, I’m going to take a quick shower, throw my shit in the car and head out before long. Not excited about today, but I wouldn’t feel very good about myself if I sat at home and missed a weak tornado this afternoon, so I guess I’m in. Better chances for tornadoes may be coming the second half of next work week so I’ll get a forecast posted tomorrow on that. Check back here in a bit for an update from the road and I’ll also post a link to my stream.