Forecast Update

Sorry for the lack of forecast posts. Actually had a chase buddy shoot me an email about slacking on my forecast posts the other day lol. I’ve been busy these last few days and the setups for this week are somewhat untraditional so I’ve been content letting the models settle in before I get carried away with the forecasting. I’m not terribly excited about this week’s setups either so that’s made it hard to get focused. That being said I did take a quick ¬†glance at the NAM and GFS runs from earlier today. I’ve been patiently waiting for the 00Z NAM to update on COD. Still waiting as I begin to type this at 9:30. Because of that and no real sense of urgency on my part, I’m going to avoid getting into much detail or posting maps tonight. I’ll get a map up tomorrow at lunch. The only day I’ve been paying much attention to is Wednesday. There is some lower end potential Tuesday, but I’m not going to be chasing so aside from glancing at it tomorrow morning I’ll skip right past that one. Thursday has a little bit of my attention, but with a somewhat sloppy surface pattern and convection possibly influencing the setup I’ll need to take a closer look at this setup before venturing a guess as to what kind of tornado potential there may be. Friday will bring strong mid and upper level winds into the plains, but there is also poor directional shear as the low begins to stack. I’m a directional shear junkie so setups like Friday’s with little to no directional component to the shear profile isn’t the kind of thing I run after.

Back to Wednesday. Glancing at the 500mb chart makes Wednesday look less than promising to say the least. We are basically under the mid level ridge, but up until tonight’s 00Z NAM run both the GFS and NAM seemed pretty consistent in breaking out convection near a triple point some place in northern Texas/southern Oklahoma. The models were also showing crapvection north of the developing warm front kind of reinforcing the boundary and the latest run of the NAM really kind of shifts things SW farther down into Texas. Until the models settle down a bit there isn’t much need to get into details. In some runs they have shown decent shear profiles and with strong instability near the triple point and warm front, so it’s something to keep an eye on. Hopefully the morning runs shed a little more light on this setup and I’ll get a forecast posted when I come home at lunch. I need to make the call on whether or not I’m chasing tomorrow so that should get my ass in gear.

Beyond the potential with the trough coming through Thursday/Friday, the GFS shows west coast toughing setting up again the first part of May. Too far out to take that seriously, but I certainly don’t mind seeing long waves with a neutral/negative tilt ejecting into the plains with the GFS.

Again sorry for not posting more. The amount of time I spend on forecasting and the number of posts I make is directly proportional to how excited I am about a given setup, so I assure you when there is a real good tornado setup I’ll talk plenty about it and when I’m not talking much it probably means I don’t like the tornado potential all that much. I do think we will see tornadoes this week. It just doesn’t look all that good at the moment and it’s tough to focus in on any particular target just yet. Hopefully that changes tomorrow. until then….

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