Forecast Update

042215 Day 1 Forecast

Few updates to the going forecast. Despite the NAM and GFS been consistent in showing storms developing along the warm front, the HRRR is waffling a bit on that (I trust the HRRR a lot more). It’s also showing more robust convection coming off closer to the triple point. Because of that I think the safer play is cheating on down the warm front closer to the triple point today. I think SPC did a solid job with the 1300 forecast detailing how basically any discrete/dominant storm this afternoon off the dryline, triple point or warm front could pose a large hail and tornado threat. It’s kind of just a guess where you think storms will fire and evolve. That being said though backing winds along the warm front should make that the corridor with the greatest tornado potential, which is why that’s the target all the chasers have been focused on.

Other change to the going forecast is to shift things southwest a bit to account for outflow reinforcing the boundary and pushing it a little farther south than the models were previously showing. I’d be setting up just SE of Amarillo probably if I was in the field. Later this afternoon the exact location of the boundaries should start to light up on visible satellite and that should make fine tuning the exact target real easy. I’ll try to update once visible satellite shows the boundaries well and post exactly where I’d go. Just SE of Amarillo should put in the right area though. I think the greatest tornado threat will occur kind of along the Amarillo to Childress corridor and possible on east of there if warm front storms getting going and remain discrete (again which the HRRR is waffling with). Good luck if you’re chasing today and check back for updates if you’re interested. I have a softball game tonight, but I’ll be virtually chasing and updating until then. I think there is a good chance of me bagging a virtual tornado this afternoon too lol.

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