Just a couple of quick forecast maps for tonight. I had a double header in softball tonight so I haven’t had much time to forecast. I also did pretty poorly with today’s forecast, so take this with a grain of salt. I really haven’t spent all that much time on it yet.
I am not going to be chasing tomorrow, but will chase Friday. Convective coverage is very much uncertain for tomorrow with the trough still lagging to the west. The 00Z NAM backed off a fair amount with convection for Friday’s setup too, but I don’t trust it at all and with the upper level trough coming in on Friday I am certain will get some storms. My question for convective coverage on Friday is along the north-south portion of the dryline from fart southern Kansas into Oklahoma. That area where the 850 and 500 jets overlap has pretty impressive shear profiles. Even with only moderate instability I think those shear profiles are good enough to pose a strong tornado threat. We just need to get a few storms off the dryline in that area. The moisture wrap around portion of the dryline in south central Kansas seems more likely to blow up with storms on Friday. Shear profiles are not quite as impressive downstream from this area as they are over the portion of the warm sector I boxed in black on the map, but it’s a good fall back target if the dryline farther south doesn’t look like it will light up. I absolutely love a good discrete dryline storm. Definitely my favorite storms to chase. With strong wind fields storm motions will be pretty quick along the dryline Friday in southeast Kansas and Oklahoma. If storms do get going along that portion of the dryline it’s probably best to play downstream a ways to start because they will be hauling ass, especially right when they come off the boundary.
I’m not going to get into details tonight. I’m too tired for that. But I’d say there’s a lower end tornado threat with any storms that can manage to get going along the dryline in north central Texas tomorrow and then I think there is a more pronounced tornado threat on Friday due to both increased storm coverage and better shear profiles as the upper level trough ejects into the plains. I will start taking a hard look at Friday’s setup tomorrow morning and get a more detailed forecast posted then.