edit – I just posted and noticed I should have drug the tornado threat area out a little farther east, especially to account for the discrepancy with the GFS being farther east, but those areas I outlined should cover about where I’d expect storms to start posing a tornado threat. I’ll get a more accurate map posted in the morning once the exact location of surface features becomes more clear.
The 00Z GFS has come out and it is holding to the 18Z solution. I’ve been taking a closer look at the NAM too so just wanted to make a few more points.
One is that I forgot to mention earlier I think storms should be more clustered in central Kansas and near the surface low, they should become more discrete over south central Kansas. Even though there is a strong jet streak coming in, with storm motions normal to the boundary there should be a tail end or discrete storms somewhere in south central Kansas/north central Kansas. This corridor, regardless of the model solution you go with, looks supportive of tornadic supercells. For that reason, my target is looking like it will be some place between Wichita and the Oklahoma border. How storms come off the dryline will determine which way I shift a little from there.
I just jumped on Facebook and there is a lot of talk about the Oklahoma target. I briefly mentioned in my previous post that I was a little unsure of why SPC left it out of the enhanced risk and that I assumed it was because the NAM has storms tracking through there early in the day tomorrow, but the NAM also has clearing behind those storms and dryline storms firing in central Oklahoma later in the day with parameters that are quite favorable for tornadic supercells. The GFS paints a slightly different picture with storms developing/ramping up near the Red River after sunrise and they smoke the warm sector in Oklahoma and northern Texas with a cluster of shit. Kind of hard to get a good feel for the nature of those storms since the GFS doesn’t have a simulated radar product that I’m aware of, but the GFS does not develop dryline storms behind that convection like the NAM. That may just be because the GFS is weaker with CAPE too. One thing to watch on this topic is whether or not there is convection along the Red River early tomorrow and how quickly it looks to clear out. If it looks like it will clear out early enough to allow for insolation and air mass recover in its wake, Oklahoma could be volatile tomorrow with very strong wind fields through the troposphere. So basically the Oklahoma and northern Texas threat is going to come down to how morning storms and cloud cover play out through the early afternoon.
After taking a closer look at the models I am still fairly confident in saying that any place along the dryline that gets decent CAPE ahead of it could pose a strong tornado threat. I think the south central Kansas target is the most sure thing at this point, but the potential could be higher farther south, just a little more iffy on whether or not things will come together. The map at the beginning basically reflects this and shows my target. I’ll update again in the morning.