Don’t have much time because we need to hit the road. The storms in Oklahoma and cloud cover are fucking up my universe. If we had clear skies today there would have been a tornado outbreak in KS/OK/TX, but that cloud cover/precip has put a damper on today’s potential. Current thinking is storms will go near the surface low/triple point within the next couple hours or so. The HRRR is consistent with a sustained storm coming off that area and tracking roughly along or just south maybe of I70 through the early afternoon. That is my initial target. I have a policy I try to follow of always keeping Wichita in range on days where there is a decent tornado threat for the metro though, so I’ll be keeping a good a south. How much clearing and instability we get ahead of the dryline is still driving the tornado potential today and the Wichita area is kind of on the edge of where we are getting decent clearing right now. The models are waffling a bit on how far south storms will develop along the dryline, but best guess is we will get a few discrete storms later this afternoon off the dryline in Kansas. If the environment downstream looks decent (respectable instability), then I will drop south for those storms. Almost every time I get cute with my chase strategy and try to cover two targets in one day it doesn’t go well, but I’m going to try it anyway.
The tornado threat is probably greatest over the area I boxed as the initial target in black on my map, but if we get decent instability ahead of the dryline in south central Kansas this afternoon, it’s closer proximity to the mid and upper level jets could give it better tornado potential than central Kansas. That being said, I’d keep an eye on the weather after 4pm if you’re in Wichita and my best guess at when storms would come through Wichita if they do will be in the 5-8pm window. I expect some tornadoes in Kansas today, mostly lower end, but a strong tornado is not outside the realm of possibilities, especially if we can get better clearing and instability to develop this afternoon.
I am leaving now. I’ll try to update from the road periodically and I’ll link my streaming video once I turn it on. Good luck if you’re out and don’t drive like an asshole.