I’m playing softball tonight so I haven’t looked at much, but I did just glance over the GFS between games. If anything the GFS has sped up the southern stream trough for the middle of next week with stronger SW flow aloft well into the plains by Tuesday. Still too far out to be putting much stock in timing and specifics with this trough, but it doesn’t look like it will have decent kinetics. The GFS is also continuing to show SW flow aloft over the plains for several days beyond Tuesday/Wednesday, but there is still too much run to run variation to start pinning down any specific day or threat area as having better potential. I’m planning on being ready to go Tuesday and I’m sure I’ll take at least a day or two off next week to chase. It doesn’t look like this is going to have the potential to be a real serious outbreak or anything like that, but when it’s May you chase. If there is decent moisture to work with you can pretty much bank on at least a tornado or two occurring with any trough coming through the plains in May.
I’ll take a look at the models tomorrow night and get a little more detailed forecast up when I have more time to spend on it.