The models continue to show an active stretch starting around Tuesday, but no one day is looking all that great so far.
The trough should start to nose into the plains on Tuesday, but I still think Wednesday is the first chase day. The models have been consistent in showing a strong meridional component to the mid level winds on Tuesday. Additionally by Tuesday it’s not looking like decent quality moisture will have had enough time to advect back into the plains. There very well may be a lower end severe threat in the western plains on Tuesday, but no way I’m dragging my ass all the way across the state for southerly 500mb winds lol. So unless something changes, I’ll likely be sitting Tuesday out.
Wednesday has been showing a little better shear profiles with the trough fully ejecting into the plains and more of a westerly component to the mid level winds vs Tuesday. We should also have better quality moisture in place (GFS is showing dewpoints in the low 60’s). One concern is morning precip working through the central plains that morning. I’m not going to get into any kind of details for Wednesday quite yet, but it’s something to watch.
Beyond Wednesday there is a bit of spread between the GFS and ECMWF show some variation of a west coast trough with several shortwaves ejecting through the plains over several days. The GFS has been showing Friday and Saturday potentially being chase days. Still too far out to know much, but I’ll try to get into a little more detail tomorrow.
I’ve been pretty busy over the last couple days so I haven’t had all that much time to forecast. I should be able to spend a little more time on it this weekend. I’m itching to get a good tornadic supercell so I just hope one of these days can deliver a good setup. Nothing looks very impressive at the moment, but I would about guarantee we get a tornado in the plains next week. That’s what happens in May.