I need to get some work done at home for a meeting tomorrow morning so I’m not going to post a full forecast tonight. Just a few quick thoughts.
I glanced over the last several runs of the GFS and I’m not a big fan of the trend it’s showed in the last 24 hours. I looked at last nights 00Z run, the 12Z and the 18Z. I usually don’t pay much attention to the 06 and 18Z runs so I’m not too worried about it yet, but the 18Z makes Saturday look like a shit show of precip and poor instability, screwing up the tornado potential. The last two runs have been putting a harder negative tilt to the trough which weakens directional shear and increases forcing. I have said it numerous times before, but I’m not a fan of hard negative tilt troughs and if that trend continues that may be what we are looking at for Saturday. I prefer a neutral or slight negative tilt where directional shear is better and forcing isn’t too strong. Again I’m not going to worry about it much yet, but it is a concern.
Despite the tornado potential looking a little worse with the last couple runs this is still looking like a strong trough and quality moisture will be available to it so I’m sure there will be a severe weather event, just not sure on what sort of tornado threat we’ll be looking at. The devil is in the details with tornadoes and the exact tilt of the trough, morning precipitation and other mesoscale details that are impossible to discern this far out will play a huge role in how Saturday plays out. Friday and Saturday both need to be watched for tornado potential though so I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on it. I’ll get another update posted tomorrow. If you do want to see a map of the threat area just check out SPC’s page. My outline of the threat area would sync up pretty well with that. As long as nothing comes up I’ll get my own map up tomorrow though so check back then if you’re interested.