I’m hitting the sack, but wanted to get some maps posted real quick first with a few forecast notes. Generally speaking my previous thoughts still stand, especially with regards to Saturday and morning precipitation and backing mid/upper level winds being the primary concerns. I do think there is strong tornado potential both days. Friday I think near the surface low and the area farther south near the KS/NE border are the two best targets and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a strong tornado or two out of either one. The surface low should have a good concentration of storms and they always seem to produce with these types of setups. The area farther south where the midlevel jet noses in is also looking good as a more traditional discrete dryline storm style target. That is what I’m looking at targeting. I don’t necessarily think it’s better than the surface low target, but it’s a hell of a lot closer to home for me and I need to be back to chase south central Kansas Saturday. The NW Nebraska target would be a solid 8 hour drive for me. If I wouldn’t have to drive back through the night and chase Saturday on no sleep I’d consider it, but I do so I won’t lol.
Saturday is still a little sketchy. It’s much like last Saturday in the regard that morning storms will likely screw everything up lol. I hate seeing strong troughs potential wasted by crapvection, but it is looking highly likely with this one. How much morning storms affect moisture quality and instability for the afternoon storms will drive the location and extent of any tornado threat Saturday. Although the trough is going to have a pretty hard negative tilt, it does look like we’ll still have a good enough directional component to the shear profiles for a solid tornado threat Saturday wherever decent moisture/instability can be realized over the area boxed in red. Given the very strong wind speeds, strong long-track tornadoes are not out of the question. Again moisture quality and instability are going to be a strong driver of that potential being realized though.
Sorry for not posting a forecast earlier and/or getting more in-depth. It was raining here this afternoon and it made me sleepy so I took a nap instead lol. I need to rest up for two long days of chasing ahead. I’ll get more serious about my forecasting as we get closer though so check back.