Forecast Update

It looks like no chasing for Mikey today. The HRRR has a whole lot of nothing coming off the dryline in Kansas today. I have other things I need to get done so I think I’ll sit this one out rather than driving to western Kansas for a cap bust. I am really wishing I was in the Nebraska panhandle right about now. I still think that area has a solid tornado threat this afternoon. The surface low over Colorado is drawing dewpoints in the upper 50’s into NW Nebraska this afternoon. A cumulus field has begun developing over northeast Colorado and storms should begin firing in that area north of the surface over the next several hours. With additional heating they should have moderate instability over the target area this afternoon with sufficient deep layer shear for supercells. North of the warm front backing surface winds will enhance low level shear and any supercell tracking through the Nebraska panhandle could pose a tornado threat. I’d target Alliance, Nebraska (actually I’d start south of there closer to the Colorado border and chase into the Alliance area) if I was chasing. I would definitely be there if it wasn’t a 9 hour drive the day before a bigger chase day in south central Kansas. BTW that is god awful chase country in NW Nebraska. I’ve chased there a few times and road options can be a major problem.

For Saturday I think my going forecast is on track, so see my previous post and forecast map. If we get decent moisture quality (say dewpoints in the low 60’s) and instability over south central Kansas and also maintain a decent directional component to the shear profiles (as the NAM is currently showing), then I think a tornado outbreak including the potential for strong tornadoes is a real possibility in south central Kansas and Oklahoma. I wouldn’t make any changes to my going forecast map after looking at the 12Z NAM, so again see the map in my previous post. I will take a good look at the models this afternoon and get a new map posted though, so check back later tonight if you’re interested. Otherwise I may do a little virtual chasing this afternoon in NW Nebraska. If I do I may make a few wise ass remarks or nowcasting posts lol. Until then…

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