Saturday

Not a whole lot of changes to the going forecast. Still looks like a potential tornado outbreak with a strong tornado threat tomorrow afternoon in the central plains with morning storms and/or convective evolution possibly affecting the location and extent of any tornado threat. Below is just kind of rehashing some of the details.

Still a lot of uncertainty with how exactly morning storms will disrupt the warm sector, but latest NAM guidance continues to show cloud cover breaking and allowing for decent surface heating ahead of the dryline by noon tomorrow. Moisture quality will take a hit from morning storms, but the NAM continues to show low 60 dewpoints over the southern portion of the dryline up to about I70. The NAM has CAPE climbing back up to around 2000, with the strongest CAPE over SW Oklahoma before storms developing early tomorrow afternoon.

The entire area boxed in red on my map should have excellent 850-500 crossover tomorrow with a 40kt LLJ and 70kts out of the SSW at 500mb. If we realize the moderate instability the NAM has been forecasting, conditions should be quite favorable for supercells by early afternoon when storms develop.

The NAM has storms firing around 3-4pm, which seems about right. Convective evolution is still a bit of a question mark, but for the last couple days the NAM has been showing more discrete convection coming off the dryline. Storms may fire somewhat early tomorrow afternoon and we need them to stay discrete into the evening to realize the best parameters when low level shear ramps up and LCL heights lower. That being said, if storms tend to cluster or go linear tomorrow that would mitigate the tornado threat. Best guess is storms will stay somewhat discrete for a few reasons that I don’t care to elaborate on much (storm motion normal enough to boundary, storms should quickly get off the boundary and there should be plenty of OFB’s to help concentrate development in pockets along the dryline).

After storms fire conditions may not immediately be real supportive of tornadoes with LCL heights being a tad high and low level shear not all that strong, but both will improve steadily through the afternoon. By 00Z LCL heights will lower and low level shear will be very strong.  The NAM has 0-1km SRH >100 all along the dryline by 00Z and it continues to rapidly improve up to 03Z with most of the warm sector in Kansas and Oklahoma characterized by SRH values well into the range typically associated with strong tornadoes. Hodographs are quite impressive with good length and sickle shape in the lower levels. How good of quality moisture and instability we have is going to be the big driver of potential tomorrow, but with very strong shear profiles a tornado outbreak is possible along with strong tornadoes.

I will figure out my exact target in the morning, but thinking I’ll head out towards DDC and cut south from there and probably focus on the area I boxed in yellow on the map. I will update again in the morning and good luck if you’re heading out.

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