Extended Forecast

Well I made a forecast map in powerpoint and exported it as a JPEG file, but for some reason the map won’t upload. I tired of messing with it and I don’t want to jump on my home pc, so no map tonight.

There may be some tornado potential on Tuesday in parts of the western plains. The 00Z NAM has a dryline over west Texas and a triple point setting up near the far SE corner of Colorado Tuesday afternoon. With 60kts at 500mb nosing in during the afternoon and excellent directional shear in the 0-6km layer, shear profiles will be quite favorable for supercells. The big problem is the same one we dealt with this Saturday and the Saturday before that, morning storms botching moisture quality and afternoon destabilization. Storms are forecast to track through the warm sector through the morning. Oh the NAM shows moderate instability redeveloping all the way up to the triple point behind morning convection, but what’s that saying Bush tried to get out? “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice……… well you’re not going to fool me twice”.  Yeah no way I’m trusting the NAM after how it handled similar setups the last two weeks. The question mark surrounding air mass recover over the northern portion of the threat area on Tuesday is probably why SPC only highlighted the southern portion in a slight risk. Morning convection is only forecast to go down to about the far SE corner of New Mexico, so the southern area will likely clear out better and have the best chance at good instability. Anyway, I’ll keep an eye on it and if somehow it looks like the triple point area could have decent instability I’d consider chasing. That’s a big if at the moment though.

Attention next turns to Thursday. A decent combination of directional shear and instability may come together along the dryline in far SE New Mexico and SW Texas. I’m not looking at it much since it’s a hell of a long ways away and there’s no chance I’m driving that far, but it could pose a lower end tornado threat.

The next big day appears to be in the central plains on Saturday, again. This will be the third Saturday in a row where a significant trough has come through the plains. Kinetics look good with this trough, just like the last two. Decent quality moisture should be available across the southern plains for the LLJ to tap into ahead of this system. This wave may have a little less of a negative tilt and not quite as strong of a meridional component to the mid/upper winds. That would be a good thing. The bigger question mark will probably be preceding convection and how it will disrupt the moisture quality/instability. Common theme it seems like this year. After having two good shear profile days largely botched by morning storms I’m hesitant to get overly optimistic for this setup, but the potential is definitely there for a major severe weather event. I want to see one more day of runs and then I’ll start talking a little more detail tomorrow, so stay tuned.

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