Well tough call on whether or not to chase tomorrow. For me it would be about an 8 hour drive to hit my target area. That would mean I need to leave town by about 5-6am tomorrow to make sure I’m there on time because you damn sure don’t want to be late if you’re going that far. I do think there will probably be a couple tornadoes tomorrow in NE Colorado, but I also think they’ll probably be lower end. I have a lot I things I need to do and I haven’t gone out drinking in a few weeks so I’m definitely leaning towards staying home rather than chasing tomorrow. That being said, I’m not going to get into the forecast details. I’m being lazy because I’m probably not chasing and I’m just not all that interested in this setup. It’s the same boring problems we’ve had ruin pretty much every trough in May. Morning storms will track through the warm sector tomorrow limiting instability later in the day. The area along the dryline looks good on sig tornado, but I think that may be a bit misleading. Low level hodographs look decent down there, but there is a big S shape in the mid-upper levels from backing winds. The area north of the surface low in NE Colorado doesn’t have much of an S shape and that area should have the best tornado potential tomorrow. That area north of the surface low always seems to produce on setups like this. I’d target just north or northeast of Denver. Storms should fire during the afternoon in that general area and kind of in a NW to SE band and move north. I’d just try to get on a more discrete storm with undisturbed inflow over that area and I think there’s a decent shot for a lower end tornado or two.
I’ll probably be virtual chasing this one, but I’m going to see what SPC has to say at 1am before making the call for sure. I haven’t forecasted that much for this and I’m not that good at forecasting these higher terrain events so I’ll lean on them a little more heavily. The flopped 5% tornado probe in that same area today isn’t making trusting their advice any easier though lol. Just a real long drive that will pretty much take up 2 of my 3 days off for a lower end tornado threat doesn’t seem like that much fun compared to what I could otherwise do. I don’t know… we’ll see. Good luck if you’re heading out tomorrow.