Well I just glanced over the ECMWF, GFS and GEFS. It’s not looking good if you are in the plains for tornadoes over the next 10 days or so (insert whatever period of time you trust the models out to). There are a few weak disturbances that come through. Tomorrow there may be some chance in southern and eastern Oklahoma, but that’s about the last setup with any meaningful mid/upper level winds. Wednesday SPC is highlighting the SW Kansas area and adjacent portions of Texas/Oklahoma, but mid/upper level winds will be really weak. There is a bit of discrepancy between the NAM and GFS at the surface, but what is clear is that you’ll need backing surface winds along a warm front or north of a surface low to get directional shear to offset the poor mid/upper level flow and get deep layer shear into supercell range. I’ll take a closer look at this tomorrow and get into it.
Beyond Wednesday there are a few weak disturbance forecast to come through with the GFS, but like Tuesday you’d need good directional shear to help offset really weak mid/upper flow. Basically the jet stream vanishes over the next week. The GFS shows a weak closed low over the plains next Saturday, but the ECMWF doesn’t show it, so not going to worry about that for now. Regardless the next 7-10 days or so are unimpressive to say the least. It’s not unusual for us to get a slow streak in the middle of season. It seems like it happens every year. Just got to wait it out until the jet stream meanders back to the south. There are some more meaningful troughs forecast through the high plains later in the week, but for now I’ll hold off on looking at those.
There won’t be a whole lot to talk about, but check back tomorrow for some detail on Wednesday’s setup and another look ahead at the extended forecast.