Extended Forecast

ecmwfUS_500_spd_168gfsUS_500_spd_156I just glanced over the models briefly so confidence is somewhat low in the extended forecast at this point, but I’ll firm it up tomorrow with a little more detailed look at the models.

The next chance for tornadoes will likely be on Tuesday in North Dakota and then again Wednesday in South Dakota. I haven’t looked at it closely, but both days I think the tornado potential will be maximized near a surface low/triple point where surface winds back. I’ll take a closer look tomorrow, but that is where I’d probably target both days. I don’t think it looks like anything special, but a few lower end tornadoes seem like a good bet.

For us back in the central plains we are in for a short break, but tornado potential may return as early as Friday. The GFS has been jumping around a lot so I have little confidence in it at the moment, but this mornings run is in general alignment with the ECMWF in stronger SW flow aloft nosing into the plains Friday or Saturday. With several days of southerly low level winds and favorable trajectories off the gulf moisture quality should not be a problem. Strong instability seems like a good bet, which will help to offset the weak mid/upper winds. This will also be a slow moving trough as it battles our summer  blocking high pressure pattern. This is the type of setup that could bring several chase days in a row. At first glance it isn’t anything special. It’s not a big trough with strong wind fields or anything resembling a large scale outbreak type setup, but for a storm chaser all it takes is one good storm and I think it’s the kind of setup that is capable of that. Details are pointless right now so I’m not going to get too carried away, but with good quality moisture, strong instability and good a chance for strong directional shear, this next weekend could give us a couple good chase days in the central plains. I’ll get a map posted as soon as we get a little consistency out of the models.

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