Today

barrel meso

Above is a pic from yesterday’s supercell that formed along the OFB that I chased. I think it’s the first supercell I”ve ever been on that actually moved backwards for a long period of time. It tracked SW for quite a while, basically sitting still along the boundary. Really good directional shear is what will give you big barrel shaped updraft/mesocyclones like that and it’s one reason why I am a huge fan of directional shear. With very similar shear profiles and strong instability today I’d expect to see some more striated barrel updraft pics like that. Unfortunately I don’t think I can chase today. I have a haircut this afternoon and kind of need to be at work. If I could chase I’d probably target the OFB in north central Kansas. I think this area will most likely have the CAPE max intruding on the OFB. Additionally dewpoints over the eastern half of Kansas are a little better than farther west and that should advect into the OFB area by late afternoon. I’m not sure where the OFB will end up exactly, but I’d setup some place south of Concordia, KS and the OFB will light up on vis satellite this afternoon long before storms fire allowing you to move in on it. Should be easy to get on a storm long before it does anything. I think the tornado probs are about like yesterday. I’d expect a couple storms to produce, but mainly I’d be looking for big hail and cool structure as the primary theme. The HRRR does show one storm rotating like crazy in it’s latest run, but the HRRR has been struggling lately and it’s run to run consistency today has been horrible as it tries to get a better handle on how convection currently ongoing will play into this afternoon. Good luck if you’re out. Wish I could chase, but unless it looks like there will be storms closer to I70 and they’re holding off on firing until late in the day I’m screwed. I’ll get a forecast up for this weekend later tonight.

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