Update on Today


Tough figuring out where storms will fire today since the HRRR and other models have such a poor handle on it. When ongoing convection and OFB’s are driving the location of the greatest threat and where storms will fire like they are today you kind of have to drop the models and work more off of current conditions and satellite then you may otherwise. That being said, above is my best guess at where the best storm will develop today and where I’d target. I haven’t forecasted much so take it with a grain of salt, but I think the best storm will either develop near the area circled in purple or along the OFB this afternoon. I think you can split the difference and target about where I marked an X in yellow and be prepared for either scenario and that’s what I’d be doing. If we get an OFB storm today one thing that may boost it’s tornado potential relative to the storm I was on yesterday is that the OFB has an orientation much closer to right moving storm motion than it did yesterday. That could help a lot, but then again I don’t think anybody really ever knows how exactly a storm will react to a boundary until it happens. Good luck if you’re out. Normally I’m too busy driving and forecasting for myself to make mesoscale analysis posts, but since I’m not out today figured I’d throw a bone to any newbies in the field today and help them out with targeting lol. Don’t blame me if it doesn’t verify though lol. I will take credit if it does however.

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