Forecast Update

I only glanced at data, mainly for the Kansas portion of the threat area tomorrow too, so probably not much value here for any readers lol. I think the best tornado threat tomorrow will clearly be near the triple point and warm front in Iowa. Morning convection tracking through the target area and storms becoming clustered during the afternoon both seem to be limiting factors for tornadoes, but with favorable parameters near the triple point/warm front I think a few tornadoes are a decent possibility. All going to depend on clearing and convective evolution.

For Kansas, I’m generally not a cold front chaser, but I will get out for a decent cold front/dryline setup. The boundary intersection should be over SW Kansas tomorrow afternoon. With a surface low in SE Colorado it looks like low level winds could back near the triple point in SW Kansas, which would enhance low level shear. That is something that tends to focus tornado potential with a storm coming off the boundary intersection with cold front dryline setup so it’s almost always my favorite target, big problem with the cold front/dryline intersection tomorrow though is high LCL heights. Temperature dew point spreads will be wide. Even by 03Z LCL heights are at the upper end of what’s workable and that’s as surface inversion starts to set in on forecast soundings. Usually with cold front/dryline storm tornadoes they happen fairly early in the storms life before the cold front fills in and things get messy. With LCL heights being high early when storms will initially fire I’m doubting that any storm coming off the intersection in SW Kansas tomorrow would be able to get the job done and produce a tornado. The only chance I could see is if storms hold off until late in the day and then maybe there’d be a window for a weak tornado while storms are initially discrete. That’s highly conditional so I’ll look at things and make the call tomorrow afternoon, but I’m leaning towards not chasing.

Anywho, I’ll take a look at the setup tomorrow and make another quick update if I have time. A more significant trough is slated for late next week, but I want to see a couple more runs before I get into that.

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