Forecast Update

Sorry for the silence. I’ve been lazy as storm season winds down. I did look at yesterday’s setup a bit, but couldn’t muster the will power to post and since it’s out of the plains I don’t think a whole lot of people care if I don’t post. Tomorrow’s setup is a little closer to home though so figured I better say something. The area of focus is a warm front across central Iowa. The exact location of the boundary is a bit uncertain, especially since morning convection could reinforce it/shove it south. Best guess is it will be along the Omaha to Des Moines corridor, but the models have consistently botched the extent of morning convection and it’s impact on surface boundaries/threat area location this year (latest example being yesterday), so I’m not sure I trust that a whole lot. Should be easy to figure out in the morning though. Latest NAM run is throwing a bit of a curveball with morning convection tracking through the warm sector during the day as a disturbance moves through earlier in the day. Earlier runs had the warm sector clearing earlier. The theme this year when that happens, and it’s happened a lot, is for the greatest threat area to shift SW where clouds clear earlier and you get good instability along the OFB from morning convection. That will need to be watched tomorrow if there is in fact extensive precip over Nebraska tomorrow morning. Sooo, convective evolution and it’s impact on the location of the front and recovery in it’s wake will once again play a big role in the extent of any tornado threat tomorrow. It does look like there will be strong/extreme instability along the warm front where we get good insolation and shear profiles will be quite impressive. Where surface winds back along the warm front hodographs exhibit good curvature and decent length. With low LCL heights and strong instability strong tornadoes could be possible. I think it’s a highly conditional threat at this point with convective evolution being a big uncertainty. Additionally there is a little uncertainty as to whether or not storms may even fire along the warm front (as opposed to north of it). I’ve only glanced at data so take that with a big grain of salt. I’ll take a closer look in the morning and if I do chase I’ll update from the road with my target. I really can’t be away from work tomorrow. We are having a waste water treatment system installed and I’m in charge of it, but if strong tornadoes look like a good possibility I’ll bail. I’ll take a little shit for it, but I’m good to go if I need to. We’ll see. I’m going to keep looking at data and I’ll make the final call in the AM. I was leaning towards chasing until I saw the timing change and precip lingering with the 00Z NAM, now I’m leaning towards not chasing strictly because I’m swamped at work. See what SPC has to say along with CAM guidance.

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