Forecast Update

Really not much change to my thinking for Monday and Tuesday’s setups over the last few days. Sorry I didn’t get a post up the other day. I was busy with some work stuff then I spent most of my day today getting some equipment ready so I can load up the car tomorrow. That didn’t leave me much time for forecasting and posting on my blog. I haven’t taken a real hard look at data yet, but I did check out soundings across southern Texas and the desert SW this afternoon. Moisture return is trying to get underway, but decent moisture is still confined to far south Texas. That should start to change tomorrow morning and moisture advection gets underway. The moisture was pretty shallow with the CRP 12Z sounding, but BRO was a little deeper. I won’t check the 00Z because I’m going out, but I imagine that’s changed by now. I’ll be watching moisture return fairly closely. The NAM is showing upper 50 dew points in Kansas by Monday afternoon with sufficient depth (think the forecast sounding had 59), but I think that’s overdoing it a tad. Regardless, shear profiles will be supportive of supercells and moisture quality should be good enough for a lower end tornado threat. Biggest concerns are clearing through the day and getting a decent swatch of instability for storms to work with ahead of the dryline. Storm motions will be fairly quick, so hopefully there aren’t any issues with them outrunning the instability axis quickly. I want to say RM storm motion was NE at 40mph or so. My other big concern that I really haven’t heard anybody talk about is just getting a storm. SPC seems fairly confident it will happen and they have a lot more tools and knowledge to work with on that subject, so that tends to put my concerns at ease, but I’m still a tad concerned about initiation up in Kansas. I think west central Oklahoma is a little more of a sure thing. I don’t have time to get into any details now because I’m trying to workout and get showered so I can go out, but Il’ll get into the hodograph and tornado potential stuff tomorrow when I have more time. I think we are looking at a lower end tornado threat with any sustained supercell we get Monday. Like a dumbass I scheduled a 2pm meeting in Heston on Monday, but I can bail straight from there so I should be okay to chase. It just limits me to the Kansas target.

On Tuesday’s setup, I still kind of like the moisture wrap around/warm front area despite SPC not talking much about it. It’s shifted south since my last post and is closer to the Dallas and north texas area in the latest runs. Looks like it could kind of be a sloppy day down there. I don’t plan on chasing that one as things stand now, but I’ll take a closer look and make the call tomorrow.

Off to get ready to go out. Check back tomorrow for the forecast update.

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