I got up at 7am and showered and since then have been sitting here debating whether or not I want to brave the SW Arkansas forest. lol I can’t bring myself to do it. I’ve been in southeast Oklahoma and it is no fun at all dealing with those hills and trees. The other thing that bothers me is weaker upper level SR winds and the chance for storms to be packed in pretty tight along that arcing line. I think the tornadoes could be a little sloppy/rain wrapped. Trying to finagle my way in on a rain wrapped tornado with limited road options in shitty chase country seems a bit sketchy when there’s quick moving storms and I’m driving a new car lol. I just have this gut feeling I’m going to take an ass kicking if I go down there lol. I’m so ready to chase though. Just an agonizing decision and I’ve wasted so much time debating it that now I’d risk not even beating storms to my target.
Now that that’s out of the way, the NAM seems to be holding pretty steady minus the trend to slowly shift this setup west, which is putting it into worse chase country. Storms still look like they’ll move into the 530 corridor and into chaseable terrain right before dark, but I’m afraid things could be getting messy by then. I still think the area south of Little Rock is the big bullseye with this one. If I was chasing my plan was to head towards Pine Bluff, Arkansas. From there I probably would have tried to cheat west into the forest a bit and get a view as storms approached, but ultimately Pine Bluff was kind of my fall back point where I think you can realistically pick up on a storm and maintain a visual on any tornado as you chase it. It’s going to be a bastard chasing down there today, but if you get lucky and one of those storms tracks parallel to a NE-SW highway and maintains somewhat of a classic supercell structure (not rain wrapped) it may not be too bad. Best of luck if you’re heading out and be safe. You don’t want to get your ass kicked by a tornado anytime, but definitely not in Arkansas before season has even really gotten started lol. I’ll probably update through the day since I’ll be virtual chasing this one. BTW wouldn’t be surprised to see SPC go 10% hatched in a later outlook for that area either side of Pine Bluff.