Well kind of a botched call on playing south for my virtual target on Monday lol. Honestly if I was chasing Monday I think I would have headed up towards the storms that were a little better tornado producers. I made that post at lunch time and later in the day I was watching data. Between there being a good gap in the cumulus field indicating the storms firing in NE Missouri wouldn’t be too clustered (at least there would be a break in the line for one with undisturbed inflow) and surface winds veering more farther south, I would have moved north. The southern storm did produce too, but I think the storm by Macomb was probably the best one of the day. I was just relieved I didn’t miss any real good tornadoes. I’m about done passing on these longer distance iffy setups. As we get into the meat of tornado season they seem to produce good tornadoes with a higher frequency so it’s about go time.
I only glanced over the GFS and GEFS spaghetti plots so I’m not going to get into much detail yet, but the next trough will likely be the middle of next week as the polar front jet dips back south on Tuesday and a lower amplitude wave is forecast to move through the plains around Wednesday before it digs south east of the plains. The gulf is going to get clobbered this weekend and with this being a lower amplitude wave as it moves through the plains, moisture return is likely going to be a problem. It doesn’t look like much, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
I haven’t been watching the models closely so I’m not putting much stock in what they’re showing beyond that. I’ll keep an eye on them though and update regularly on what looks to be coming up as I get a feel for run to run consistency and check out the ECMWF. It looks like it may be a bit slow until around April 1. I still have some equipment to get setup so although I’m ready to chase, I wouldn’t mind a little more time to get everything ready. Anyway, check back in a day or two and I’ll get a more detailed extended forecast up.