Update

just glancing at data again while I have a minute and another issue is it looks like going off Oak mesonet and via satellite the dryline has a more NE-SW orientation than the NAM was forecasting, which makes sense with a positively tilted trough and was something I brought up as a problem in the forecast post a few days ago. That will make discrete storms less likely since storm motions will be more parallel to the boundary and they’ll also struggle to get away from the boundary into better moisture over the open warm sector. We have been getting clearing in Wichita for about an hour now, but I glanced at morning soundings out west and didn’t see very steep lapse rates but the meso analysis page is showing CAPE up to 2500 in OK already. On a good note the moisture return does look about in line with the NAM so at least it got that close. CAM guidance and convective evolution are still my biggest concern for this afternoon. Once I get home in an hour and can dive into the forecast I’ll get a more meaningful post up. 

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