Just got done glancing over model data. I checked the GFS, ECMWF and GEFS spaghetti plots. I’ll just give a quick run down of the general consensus. The trough that produced severe weather the last couple days will deepen over the east coast and eventually move off to the northeast late this weekend, pushing dry continental area south over the gulf as it does.
The next trough in line is forecast to move into the plains around Tuesday-Wednesday. It does not look like we will have good enough moisture to work with in the plains on this one for a few reasons. One is that as mentioned above the gulf is going to take a pretty good hit this weekend. Another is because of the short wave length nature of the troughs with this one for Wednesday coming right on the heels of the one that is moving through right now. Also this Wednesday’s trough is forecast to be pretty low amplitude, so it’s not likely to get a decent fetch of moisture until it digs south a little further after it gets through the plains. Sooo, I’m not banking on much in the way of tornadoes with Wednesday’s system, at least not for the plains.
Beyond Wednesday we are getting a little cute, but I’ll give it a go anyway lol. I’ve been watching the extended forecast with the GFS for a few days and my best guess is we’ll get the next wave in line around Monday April 11th. There have been hints of an active pattern setting up with that being the first of several troughs coming through the plains as a big high amplitude long wave sets up over the west coast. Again, getting pretty cute reading much into model data that far out, but climatology would agree with it so it’s something to kind of look forward to I guess lol. I am itching for a big outbreak type setup and it seems like in recent years most of those have tended to come in April for the central plains so I’m pumped. This is the time of year I live for.
On a non-forecasting note, I realized today that this makes two years in a row where I half assed an early season chase and missed a tornado right by Tulsa. I did it last year when I bailed to come home because my cradlepoint wifi system was unstable. I still had internet through my iPhone hotspot and could have easily chased last year when I missed a Tulsa tornado, but I bitched out and went home to fix it instead. It was a weak move and I paid dearly for it lol. I nailed the forecast on that Tulsa tornado last year too so it stung real bad. So here we are a year later and I missed a Tulsa tornado again early in the season. At least this time I don’t think I would have ended up on that storm by Tulsa if I didn’t come back early (had a problem with my cars 4 wheel drive and got a check engine light, but got it fixed today and it was just sensor BS). I knew damn well yesterday after storms fired early and were clustered in Kansas you had to get to the south edge where they’d be more discrete for any meaningful tornado threat. I was going south towards Oklahoma when I had that car trouble yesterday early in the afternoon, but in reality if that wouldn’t have happened I bet I would have been lazy and taken one of the storms along the OK/KS border rather than going all out and diving south to the more discrete storms in Oklahoma. That being said, I don’t feel quite as bad about missing out on the tornadoes down by Tulsa yesterday. At the same time, I have got to get my ass in gear and get serious about chasing. I usually hold back a little bit early in the season, especially on long distance setups, just because it feels like there is a much higher bust percentage when you’re outside of traditional peak season. As we get into April, it’s time to get serious and start committing to some of these longer distance out of state chases. Once we hit May, then you chase virtually everything. Things just come together better with a higher frequency that time of year. I guess what I’m say is I’ve missed some early season opportunities and it’s time to get my shit together lol.
Enough rambling for one night. I’ll be keeping an eye on the extended forecast so I’ll update pretty regularly.