Extended Forecast

I’m about ready to go to bed so I’m going to keep this short. Still looks like the next trough will move into the plains this weekend. Sunday is the first day of any real interest. A fairly weak southern stream wave will move into the southern plains on Sunday. Moisture return is a bit of a concern, but it looks like we may get dewpoints in the low 60’s back into the central plains ahead of it. The big problem I see here is that 850mb winds will be veering badly thanks to a stronger trough associated with the polar front jet over the north central US. This same trough also will be responsible for a cold front crashing south into the central plains Sunday afternoon, so it looks like we may have a nontraditional surface pattern with a cold front/dryline triple point near NE Kansas with a NE to SW dryline through the central and southern plains. There are other problems associated with the veering 850’s, but I’ll hold off on getting into those details tonight. There may be a lower end tornado threat in a couple spots too, but again I’ll wait to get into that until tomorrow.

Monday got highlighted in SPC’s 4-8 day outlook, but again the tornado potential doesn’t look very good. A cold front crashing south will be the initiating boundary over the area SPC highlighted, which obviously doesn’t lend itself to discrete storms, plus the directional shear is going to suck with winds veering badly just above the surface along the cold front and farther SW where a cold front/dryline triple point will be located.

Several other southern stream disturbances will work through southern Texas through the week, but I haven’t paid much attention to those. The next real trough of interest is forecast to move into the plains around Friday-Saturday of next week. This looks to be a more significant trough and I’ve seen quite a few posts on Facebook about it. However, the GFS has been very consistent in showing this trough taking on a hard negative tilt as it fully ejects into the plains on Saturday, with mid and upper level winds backing really hard. The strong meridional component to mid and upper level flow you get with hard negative tilts like that can be damning to tornado potential, so that’s the biggest problem I see when just looking at the basics this far out. Friday may be more of a day before the day setup where directional shear is better as the trough lags to the west and hasn’t taken on a real hard negative tilt yet, but moisture return is likely going to be an issue (as it often times is with day before the day setups, especially in April). Anyway, I’ll take a closer look at the Friday-Saturday trough and get into a little more detail on that tomorrow as well.

So for now that’s all I’m covering. Check back tomorrow night and I’ll dive a little deeper in to the forecast.

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