Forecast Update


Well my feelings haven’t changed a whole lot on today’s setup since the last map I posted 36 hours ago, so I just recycled that one and posted it again below. Click on the map and enlarge it to read the text, which again is part of the original map so nothing new here. 041016 Day 3 Forecast MapI think the best chance for a tornado today is still along the dryline. It’s not a real good tornado threat, but it’s there and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a few lower end tornadoes in the 7-10pm window with any discrete storms ahead of the dryline. The best chance may be in far SW Oklahoma down into the area south of Childress, but I don’t think that area is good enough to get me to bypass every other potential target up this way and justify the drive. I have some work to get done today for a conference call at the butt crack of dawn tomorrow morning and storms developing along the northern portion of the dryline and/or triple point may work their way into south central Kansas where I could help with coverage. Because of that I’m leaning towards staying up here (mostly because of the shit I need to get done for work and because I try to hit it hard at work now so when real tornado setups get here I can bail regardless of what’s going on. Kinda building up good will for that right now lol). Anyway, I’m thinking the northern end of the dryline will be my play today, but I’m waiting to see SPC’s thoughts and need to take another look at updated CAM guidance before making that call. If I’m bailing for SW Oklahoma I’ll leave by noon. It’s a 5 and a half hour drive to Childress for me so noon is about my cut off for making that target in an okay timeframe.

Sorry for not getting a post up yesterday btw. I went into work yesterday morning when I got up and didn’t get home until 5pm. Then I had some other stuff to do so although I did forecast a bit last night, I just didn’t have the time to type up a forecast and get it posted. If things looked like they had changed a bit I would have, but the going forecast seemed on track so I wasn’t worried about it.

The forecast for tomorrow really hasn’t changed at all since my previous post (look back at it for details). It looks solid, until you see the poor low level shear thanks to the weak wind fields around 850mb (again see post below for why low level winds are weak). That will put a huge damper on tornado potential for what otherwise might be a solid setup. Still the best potential for a lower end tornado or two will likely be with storms developing near the triple point and dryline bulge over the SE quadrant of Oklahoma. That is god awful chase country btw. I may chase tomorrow, but I doubt it. The shitty chase country and weak low level winds are most likely a deal breaker for me.

Looking beyond that, again same set of problems with next weekends trough that we’ve been talking about with a strong meridional component to mid and upper level flow. The latest runs are a bit slower with the eastward progression of the trough, but we still may get a day before the day setup Friday over the higher terrain of New Mexico and SE Colorado. The trough doesn’t eject into the plains until Saturday though and by that time there will be a very strong meridional component to mid/upper flow. That will put a damper on tornado potential, but with large spatial coverage of favorable shear profiles and a sharp dryline, I’m sure we’ll see some tornado reports with this trough. Moisture quality is a bit of a concern, but upper 50’s into lower 60’s seem somewhat reasonable ahead of the dryline by Saturday. I’m going to hold off until we get past the severe weather for the next two days before I really dive into this forecast though so check back later.

Alright, gotta through some stuff in the car and get ready. I’ll try to update a few times through the day though so check back if you’re interested.


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