Forecast Update

041516 Day 2 mapJust a quick forecast map. Click on it to enlarge the image and read the text. I just threw some quick thoughts together on the setup, although I didn’t get into much forecast detail. I worked late tonight and haven’t had much time so that’s all I’m doing lol. I’m about 50/50 on chasing tomorrow. I think it’s a really lower end tornado threat, but it’s Friday and SPC continuously mentioning tornadoes has me leaning a bit towards going (against my better judgment). I think Saturday may have slightly better potential, especially in the Texas panhandle, so that is kind of making me want to sit tomorrow out. If I chase tomorrow and then drive all the way back to Wichita, getting up to drive my ass to Amarillo early Saturday morning is going to seem like a daunting task. I don’t know. I’m going to hold off until morning and see what the HRRR is showing and SPC has to say before I make the call. IF I do chase (that’s a big if), then I’m considering the dryline in NW Texas or the area just northeast of the surface low. I think both areas have a decent shot at a semi discrete storm with undisturbed inflow through the afternoon/evening. I do like the better upper level winds along the dryline, but I also like the backing surface winds and the higher certainty of a good severe storm near the surface low. The upper portion of hodographs north of the 250mb jet nosing into the Texas panhandle suck though. Because of the more backed weak upper level winds in eastern Colorado, SR upper level winds suck. I’m wondering how well vented storms will be up there. At the same time I think low level shear may be a bit better during the hours near sunset where storms are tracking through with the surface low target. IDK, all things are about equal across the threat area I boxed in on the map so throw a dart and pick a target I guess.

Anyway, I need to catch a quick episode of game of thrones on demand and then get to bed. I’ll update in the morning some time after I decide whether or not I’m chasing.

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