April 17 Extended Forecast

Not a whole lot to look forward to this work week as far as tornadoes are concerned. A weak closed low will meander across the plains as it slowly drifts east. Weak instability and  poor shear profiles will preclude any meaningful severe weather with this closed low.

The next period of interest will be in the wake of this closed low once it pushes east and ties back in with the jet stream. The models have been fairly consistent in showing a fairly significant trough moving into the plains around Sunday. In response to the approaching wave low level winds will start advocating moisture back into the plains early next weekend. Moisture may be a deal breaker for any day before the day action on Saturday, but by Sunday we should start to get dewpoints near 60 back into the plains. A dryline in the central plains will likely be the focus for the best tornado potential with this setup. Still a long ways out, but with 500mb winds >50kts (as has consistently been forecast) and dewpoints likely getting back into the 60’s, it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

Beyond that I’m not going to get into any detail until we get some consistency out of the models, but they have hinted at an active stretch around the end of the month and first part of May.

Since we do have some decent looking setups in the extended range I’ll be keeping a close eye on the models. I’ll try to update every day, but I may keep it brief. I have a lot going on right now. I’m busy at work, still working on getting some things squared away with equipment. I just figured out I’m having issues with the software we use to feed video on Friday when it wouldn’t take the video file I was trying to send in from the field. I try to get all those little kinks worked out and give the equipment plenty of testing before we get into a big setup. Having technical difficulties like that on a big day is incredibly stressful and it makes things more dangerous when you’re messing with equipment rather than focusing on what’s happening. Because of that I really need to hit it hard this week on working out any remaining bugs with my chase setup. I also need to get the roof mount camera  finished. All the parts are fabricated minus one. I just need to get it welded together and installed. I’m kind of hoping moisture is an issue for next Saturday btw. I got floor seat for Bill Burr at the Sprint Center in Kansas City and I really don’t want to bail on that. It should be a great time between the show and going out in power and light. Looks like there’s a good chance I’ll have to drag my ass out of bed early Sunday morning to get back to Wichita though if the models are telling the truth. Still a long ways out, but Sunday at least shows the potential for a decent tornado setup. Anyway, enough rambling for tonight. I’ll try to update again tomorrow.

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