Forecast Update

Just sitting here at the Toyota dealer waiting for them to finish up the 5k maintenance on my car. It didn’t take me long at all to hit 5k with this being chase season. At this rate I’ll be in here every few weeks.

Well the GFS is jumping all over the place from run to run with Sunday’s setup. It’s substantially different with this morning’s run vs 24 hours ago. I only glanced at the ECMWF last night, but it seems like it’s trending that way by speeding up the shortwave and having it farther northeast by Sunday afternoon, which veers low level winds and sets up a surface trough/dryline running northeast to southwest through Kansas, which would put the initiating boundary largely parallel to storm motions which in turn would not be favorable for discrete storms and a tornado threat. Farther southwest the GFS shows a secondary surface low that backs low level winds more and improves directional shear. That would be the more likely area of focus for Sunday, but at this point you can’t really believe anything the GFS is showing since it’s being extremely inconsistent. I’ll take a look at it later tonight and try to update again.

Attention then turns to Tuesday and the potential for a tornado outbreak. Still a long ways out so you can’t read much into it, but the models are showing some pretty impressive parameters coming together across the central/southern plains as a significant trough ejects into the plains. Good quality moisture should be in place ahead of this trough so all the general things you look at this far out seem to be coming together. The devil is in the details with tornadoes though so I’m not getting too excited yet. That being said, I do think this looks like the first plains setup with strong tornado potential so far this year. I only glanced over data at lunch so I’ll take a closer look this afternoon and update later tonight.

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