Update

I’m not going to make a forecast post tonight. I worked later than I thought I would and then I worked out so I literally just started looking at model data like 30 minutes ago. I’ll make some quick comments below, but that’s about all I’m good for tonight. I was actually working on finishing my roof mount camera up today. That was part of the reason I worked late. I’m still not quite done, but I think I got it all figured out which was the hardest part. It’s going to look like a little R2D2 on my roof lol (only black and silver). I’ll get a picture posted once I get it up this weekend.

The 18Z GFS swung back closer towards previous solutions. I compared it to the ECMWF real quickly too and the euro is a little slower, which I think would help our cause on Sunday. It’s nothing major, but I still think it will likely be a chase day fairly close to home for me. I also still think the central portion of the dryline where you’re going to get the best overlap of the stronger mid level winds (which will be somewhat confined to the northern portion of the dryline in closer proximity to the shortwave) and better quality moisture moving up from the south. It’s looked like this area is most likely going to be in the south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma area. Still a long ways out, but I am somewhat optimistic we’ll get a lower end tornado threat in the central plains Sunday afternoon. It could be fairly close to Wichita too, so it may end up being a good warm up chase for potentially more serious weather to come on Tuesday.

Tuesday is a tad sketchy so I still want to see a couple more runs before I get too bold. It’s a solid setup, but I don’t think wind fields are strong enough for this to be a major tornado outbreak. I think strong tornadoes look possible with what the GFS has been showing, but as things stand now I don’t think it looks like a high risk setup. Seems like more of a moderate risk type threat. Still a potentially serious deal, just not at the level of something like April 14, 2012 or those types of high end setups where you have good thermodynamics and wind shear is exceptionally strong. The GFS has been showing some CINH along the dryline, but it also breaks out precip across northern Oklahoma and south central Kansas. I can’t imagine the cap not breaking so I’m not too worried about it. We should have good quality moisture to work with for this setup, so no concerns there. Shear profiles are pretty solid with somewhere around 50kt westerlies at 500mb and around 30kt southerly 850’s. At the surface a low pressure/triple point will setup in western Kansas, with a dryline extending southeast/south from there into western Oklahoma and a warm front draped across southern Kansas. Still a long ways out, but the greatest threat with the GFS has been along a dryline bulge near the KS/OK border and either side of it. Still a long ways out and a lot can change, so stay tuned. I already got the day cleared at work so I’m good to go. Just need mother nature to cooperate.

Beyond Tuesday there will likely be other opportunities for tornadoes in the plains and areas off to the east, but I’ll hold off on getting into those since I’ve spent all my forecasting time looking at Sunday and Tuesday. I’ll be updating once or twice daily since we have an active stretch coming though, so check back for updates.

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