Just a quick update. I won’t do my real forecasting until tonight. I was just glancing over the last couple runs of the ECMWF and GFS so figured I’d comment. Nothing really changing to the going forecast except for the exact location of the threat for Tuesday. I put some notes on that in the attached forecast map, so just click on it to read the notes. Basically the exact location of the threat has been trending northeast and there is good reason to believe it will continue that trend, or at least stay as far east as the GFS is currently showing it. I don’t mind the northward trend one bit because the place I really want to target with this setup is the middle portion of the dryline and with each shift north that comes closer to the KWCH viewing area (my chaseable area for Tuesday since I need to help with coverage). With the eastward shift I think it puts Wichita ever so slightly out of the absolute peak corridor of tornado potential. I think where storms are at around 6-8pm could be in big trouble and with the GFS showing storms firing around 5ish, that may put them just east of Wichita when shit could really hit the fan. That’s getting real cute with the details this far out though lol. Regardless, I think storms will develop tornado potential pretty quickly given the strong instability and moderate deep layer shear. I need to look closer at the details, but it doesn’t seem like the kind of environment where it will take storms a couple of hours to really get their act together coming off the boundary. That means Wichita is still in the wheelhouse, just trying to say I don’t think they’re in the absolute bullseye of the peak tornado potential. It’s looking like a dangerous setup with both large hail and strong tornado potential, so anyone along and either side of the I35 corridor needs to closely monitor this situation. The warm front is closer to I70 by early afternoon with the trend northeast and that could be pretty rough up there as well. I’m not really thinking about chasing up there since it puts Wichita out of range and I hate warm front demon supercells, but they certainly have tornado potential as well with good thermodynamics and impressive hodographs (I pulled a forecast hodograph from up near the warm front and it had very good curvature in the lower levels with the good directional shear along the warm front, but the length was what was really impressive, which was a result of the strongly backing low level winds and the upper level jet nosing in near the triple point).
Anyway, I’ll update later tonight after I do my real forecasting. Sunday still looks on track and is a go for me. I still think we are looking at a lower end tornado threat and I’d put the chances of tornadoes at >50% for sure, despite the lack of talk about any tornado threat in formal forecasts. I think one or two storms that produce lower end tornadoes is a pretty solid bet along the dryline Sunday, just need to pick the right spot. Check back later tonight for an update.