Sorry for the silence today lol. I had to get a lot done at work and I finished up my rooftop camera mount today so I’ve had very little time to forecast. Good news is I’m about to forecast here before long and I’ll get an updated map along with my thoughts on the tornado potential as soon as I’m done. I did glance at the 12Z NAM and I liked the dryline in Kansas a little more than in previous runs. Directional shear seemed to be a bit better than in previous runs. As SPC finally noted low level shear really isn’t that impressive tomorrow other than the dryline bulge to warm front to triple point portion of the threat area. This setup is and has been characterized by impressive thermodynamics. That will help to offset the mediocre shear profiles and I still fully expect a major severe weather event along with some strong tornadoes.
I feel like I’m starting to get a fairly good feel for this setup. I think there are still some outstanding question marks that will dictate where the best tornado threat is tomorrow and the extent of it, but I think I know what those question marks are now and will have a fairly good guess at what to expect. Anyway, before I start rambling just check back later for the forecast. I saw my blog views was blowing up today so I felt bad leaving people hanging. Just give me a few hours and I’ll get the forecast post up.
Other good news is I took the whole day off tomorrow so I can focus on forecasting and getting ready to chase. I should have time to make regular update posts with maps through the morning and early afternoon as well since I’m not working at all.
I got most of my equipment setup, but I still have a good 30 minutes of work in the morning to finish it up. Recharging all my batteries now and need to go clean out some of the central Kansas dust off the equipment from yesterday’s chase. I finally got the roof mount camera/baby R2D2 up. We’ll see how that works tomorrow. It should allow me to stream continuously on the storm since I can cover a 360 area now and control the camera from inside the car. Anyway, I need to go finish cleaning up my car and running a few more wires and jump on my forecasting. Check back later tonight for an updated forecast post.