Forecast Update

Going to keep this brief. The next potential for tornadoes in the plains will probably be tomorrow, although it looks like it’s probably going to be a lower end threat. The focus will be a dryline over the Texas panhandle. Storms should develop late in the day tomorrow and track off to the northeast. This is a day before the day setup so as usual directional shear is quite good, and as usual moisture is a problem lol. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50’s are forecast to arrive late in the day according to the NAM. I really haven’t looked at tomorrow’s setup hardly at all, but my guess would be the best tornado threat will probably be with the more southern storms where moisture quality will likely be better (since it’s just in time moisture advocating in from the south). The best tornado potential would likely be later in the day as well when LCL heights lower. It’s a lower end threat thanks to the poor quality moisture, but I wouldn’t be surprised to a see a couple tornado reports tomorrow. You could also see some good storm structure tomorrow with the good directional shear and drier air it’s a decent environment for some barrel mesocyclones, which I’m a huge fan of. I’m not going to chase though because I plan on taking off Friday to chase and I need to get some work done before I leave town.

There is some spread among the models on some important details and the extent of any tornado threat on Friday. The forecast is still a little tricky. Actually it’s a lot tricky, especially when it’s set against the background of a botched moderate risk on Tuesday lol. I want to see the models come into a little better agreement and take a look at another run or two before getting into much detail, but the basics are a surface low over the Texas panhandle will deepen and move east through the day on Friday. A dryline will sharpen across western Oklahoma and north central Texas with dewpoints rising into the upper 60’s ahead of it in the warm sector. The big question marks with this setup is morning precipitation and how will it impact the setup. The NAM is more aggressive the GFS on about everything. It is showing stronger instability and better low level shear. The NAM is showing some very impressive parameters in place over Oklahoma, I just am a little hesitant to buy it. I just got burned by the NAM juicing low level shear for Tuesday’s setup on Monday nights run. I hope the NAM is right because the thermodynamics (strong instability, low LCL heights) and impressive sickle hodographs it shows ahead of the dryline would be extremely favorable for strong tornadoes. The GFS shows a weaker setup, but still a chase day IMO. IDK, guess we’ll have to wait for a little more clarity on this one. I can also guarantee you SPC is going to be hesitant to hoist the red flag on this one after just getting their shit kicked in for the hype surrounding Tuesday lol. With morning precip being a concern and something that’s very capable of ruining a setup, I wouldn’t expect them to use much in the way of strong language until the Day 1 (assuming the NAM solution is somewhat correct and this ends up being a pretty potent setup) once they are highly confident in how the day is going to play out.

Alright, enough or now. There is a good trough forecast for next week too, but I just started watching the GFS that far out so I’m not going to comment on that ATT because for all I know the previous runs didn’t show it. I’ll get a post up tomorrow. I’ll try to get an update at lunch if I have time, then a full forecast will come tomorrow night.

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